Coronavirus concerns mega-thread

Honestly, I just can't seem to get too worked up over it at this point. China's population is close to one and a half billion people, and they've had only about eighty thousand known cases, and of those, about three thousand people have died. Keeping in mind that virus related mortality rates are generally highest in the very young, the very old, and people with otherwise compromised immune systems, the statistics aren't exactly terrifying. It's a nasty bug to be sure, but so are some strains of the flu...which sometimes kill, but generally leave people feeling like hell for a few days, and then they're back to work. Of course the CDC is concerned - that's their job, especially when the threat is a pandemic...but it doesn't spell the end of the human race, or even the likelihood that you or I are going to catch/die from this thing. I think the press is having a field day working everyone into a frenzy...because that's their job.

 

Interestingly with this strain, the lowest mortality rates are in the very young. The age group 0-9 has 0 deaths, and it's less than half a percent for ages up to 50, with no significant jump until 70. I don't know the average age of the teams working at BJD companies and dealers, but this seems like something that's a good sign for their health, though I'll still hope for them to all avoid illness in the first place.

 

One of the passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise who contracted the virus has been documenting/blogging his recovery (Jeri Back Home, Carl Continues Coronavirus COVID-19 Recovery In Nebraska: Part 19)

If his experience is what 80% of the "mild" cases are, then it makes the virus less scary for those that have healthy immune systems.

EDIT

To summarize, it was very much like colds he's had in the past, and his primary treatment has been drinking lots of Gatorade. He still has the virus in his system, but his symptoms at this point are very mild.

 

I'm concerned about attending conventions and doll events scheduled for this year such as Anime North in Toronto. It's a very crowded event. Not sure if it will be postponed. It's suppose to take place May 22nd - 24th.

 

When I had the flu in January, for a couple of days I couldn't stomach drinking water, so I drank a Powerade over the course of two days instead. That little bit of sugar is a life saver when it feels like normal water is choking you.

 

I hope for everyone to avoid illness. But that's pretty much my point - there is a lot of fuss right now because it's 'new'. There have been strains of the flu in the past, for instance, that were far more virulent and deadly, killing tens of millions. This is just the press causing a panic. I've seen a few people walking around wearing little drugstore masks. Yikes.

 

Hi,
I didn't read all the answers but as a lot oh members said, I don't think there are big risks to receive a package from China.
Furthermore, Covid19 is, like flu, a winter virus, so normally when spring will come and temperature rise, the epidemic will stop naturally. I think about stargazer_i for his convention. It's around 20°C in Toronto in May, I think it will be ok ^^

In fact, it's not really to shipping from Asia which restrain me, it's more the customs passing.... Would they not block our packages because coming from China with paranoia around corona ?

 

That's... the concern, actually. 80% of coronavirus cases are so mild and minor people could easily think all they have is a cold, or even allergies... and then in the other 20% there's severe pneumonia and lung damage, that even if the patient doesn't die, they're still really, really ill. People are concerned because even if you, personally, don't feel very bad, the people who catch it from you could be hit a lot worse.

 

Very valid, and I realize that I am lucky to have a fairly robust immune system (and that is the perspective that I wrote from), and that's not even a guarantee that I will respond well if I contract the disease. I am going to do my part to follow CDC guidelines. My previous post did sound overly myopic, and I'm not dismissing anyone's concerns.

 

Unlikely. Even if it's found/mutates to survive shipping and remain virulent, the virus is now in enough countries that shutting down shipping (in which case the package wouldn't make it to customs anyway) would probably make no appreciable difference. You'd have to stop shipping from basically everywhere.

 

I actually placed an order for a doll from China during the outbreak without realizing it- oops! I did reach out to voice that I wasn't concerned about timelines and understood if the processing/shipping was delayed.

I'm not worried at all about the virus being shipped in packages (if I was I'd leave it in my garage for a day or two extra) but moreso that the post office workers may be ill/not working or may have other restrictions. Even though I hear the sentiment that the virus is so widespread there's little point in control measures (like stopping mail, sending kids home from school, limiting travel) one of the bigger issues I see is that for the ~20% of cases with a severe reaction, the healthcare infrastructure will struggle to keep up. I'm relatively young and healthy and likely to have mild symptoms, but even then if I'm contagious for a month or longer with the disease I could pass it on to many loved ones/strangers and they aren't all likely to be as lucky. The faster the virus spreads, the more severe cases to hit the ERs and doctors offices all at once, which means people will be triaged according to severity and many could die while waiting for care.
My personal plan is to purchase a few extra items and stay home as much as possible- work on dollie projects and watch netflix- not because I'm worried about myself but to limit the overall community burden that is expected as the virus spreads.

I think it's dangerous to compare Covid19 to the seasonal flu. Yes, the flu recedes naturally when temperatures rise, but it comes back year after year and still manages to kill a significant number of people even though we have been inoculating the public for almost a century ( thereby creating some herd immunity and reducing symptom severity). The heat won't simply kill off covid and we'll never see it again, even if it goes away its likely to be temporary and we will then see an explosion of cases in addition to the regular flu a few months down the road. We are a population with zero immunity to Covid19, no vaccines (and likely not for at least a year due to human trials, then there's the issue of mutation), and our system already struggles to keep up with the regular flu cases. Not to mention that many densely populated counties also have older populations on average, like Germany, Japan, and the US and are therefore likely to be hit harder by the virus.

This concludes my soapbox rant!

 

just noticed that Alices Collections have removed their warning about NY and coronavirus causing shipping delays, so assume things are getting back to normal, although it will depend a lot on where their suppliers are based, since they are agents for companies all over China (with clothing especially).

My friend's mum flew back from China just less than a week ago, after being forced to remain in quarantine for weeks after her planned visit for Chinese NY (luckily she was staying with family). Although she had to go the long way around Wuhan, which is normally a major airplane hub. So I'm sure customs officers won't be holding up parcels from China over this virus, if they're not worried about people from China entering the country.

Meanwhile living in a 2-university, city centre, student accommodation, approx half of the 450 residents, including my flatmates, being international travelers just here to study (many went travelling in Christmas break until end of January) and knowing that literally anyone who's been in contact with someone who returned from holidays in Italy the past 2 months, etc etc - well you can't avoid everyone! I am stocking up enough in my room to last a possible 2 week quarantine situation, since anything is possible - at least I won't run out of breakfast cereal or loo roll for a while! Unlike the shops Anyone would think it's the apocalypse but with British people apparently loo roll, anti-bacterial wipes and ibuprofen are indispensable in a crisis (judging by the empty shelves).

 

The flu virus mutates every season, though. If it weren't for that, it wouldn't be necessary to come up with a new vaccine every season. Best way to protect yourself and others is washing your hands often and thoroughly (forget about hand sanitizer, scrubbing your hands with soap and water for 30 seconds is actually more effective) and if you got a cold, wear a face mask around other people to protect them from catching your germs. Personally, I'm not really concerned, right now. The flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year - until the coronavirus reaches those dimensions, I'll refrain from panicking.

 

Totally agree. It's pointless to shut down shipping when actual human carriers can board flights and flit around internationally. In the modern world, containment is next to impossible.

 

@vicemage Thank you for all this info. I wonder if it will become a modern chickenpox where parents make their sick kids interact to get them to build an immunity to it.

So I've been wondering, should we send cards (or write one big email wishing the best) to the dollmakers in China? Our hobby kind of revolves around them, and their artistic skill.

 

Well you don't need to worry about getting the virus by receiving packages (just like what others said, the virus can't live for long without a host). But the shipping will take much much longer not only because of the current restriction of international shipping but also quite a few people in China are still under quarantine and unable to go back to work (ordered a Granado head on December 12th 2019 and still haven't shipped yet, and I'm located in Shanghai China).

That's a very lovely and kind thought! =)

 

I will be thoughtful ordering anything now, because the production countries are still struggling with the virus. I assume the Asia end is starting to return to normal in places, but in my own homeland the outbreak has just started and that affects how much I'm willing to spend on unnecessary items as it might be I will have to stay out of work/school soon.There's forty new cases and hundreds of possible affected within two weeks, while we were free of the virus earlier. The officials aren't really helping and are spreading false news like you cannot spread it and can go to work if you don't have visible symptoms. Flights from north Italy are coming in every day without quarantine and folks return to work and school. Some self-quarantine but others are ignorant. Nobody knows whether the situation will be like Italy in three weeks due to too light attitudes (because this is how Italy had it three weeks ago and the amount here is now growing almost exponentially). I am afraid now, although a month ago I myself said this virus will never spread in our civilized land and the officials here would know how to act. But it seems in the end in this matter China had more balls, probably because they are familiar with stepping on individuals' rights for the greater good. I'm sure nobody here would be left to die of starvation if officials just quarantined folk coming home from Italy and not let them go teach our kids the very next day.

So no new dolls at least, as a wait in the customs is always a risk that the parcel goes missing, and if the virus strikes here properly, stuff like outside EU parcel sorting for private persons will be the first functions to be cut. During this whole global outbreak, I haven't ordered anything, because I don't want to be unsure about the wait times. I hope this is at least good for the environment as consumption of unnecessary goods drop, and it has made me think twice about needing all the props for my dolls and made me realize I've done well without buying anything. So maybe after all when this is over and if I am still alive then, I won't be buying anything after all.

 

I cannot speak for everyone but in my experience shipping has been business as usual. Several orders from China and Korea via EMS have arrived very quickly! My company is issuing out work from home orders so the one bright-side is avoiding a trip to the post office to sign for packages. I am trying to limit my travel as the virus continues to spread rapidly in the US.

 

I have 3 packages held up in Seoul Korea. As of the 5th March there are no planes to New Zealand.
I wish I had known this was going to happen. Nothing on T V here about that. Dollmore actually let me
know via email. Thank you Dollmore.
Only 5 confirmed cases here at the moment, but more are expected. We are still in containment mode.
I have a compromised immune system as does my husband with diabetes and we are slightly older.
So I am worried for sure. We have all been told to take this seriously. No more touching other people, washing hands for at least 20 seconds, no touching your face. We have been told the virus could remain on an object for at least 24 hrs if not more, they just don’t know yet.

 

Sweden here.
Our number of confirmed cases just went up from 204 to 347 since yesterday and the level of how serious the situation is considered have just been raised. For the moment things are mostly fine. The majority of the cases have been in the larger cities and most of them are people who have recently come home from high risk areas. The earliest cases are allready recovering. But there are a few cases where they have not been able to establish any such link, making it possible that it it spreading from person to person locally. No fatalities, but a few people in intensive care. I suspect the next couple of days are going to be... interesting.

Denmark have decided to not allow large events with more than a certain number of people (1000, I believe). There is a doll convention in Denmark in early April, but it's small so I think it will be fine.

Personally, I'm not overly worried, but I will make sure to stay up to date.