The BJD Crash

Sure, people collect things for antique purposes, but BJDs don't exactly "antique" very well and you can't buy antiques new, as the OP originally suggested with the point of the thread (ie: would you continue to buy BJDs if the market crashed.) Also, vinyl records continue on as antiques for the most die-hard collectors (which I allowed for in my scenario with BJDs) as well as DJs that can't "scratch" CDs.

The reason I brought up a "obsolete crash" scenario is because so many posters have established that the BJD price isn't "inflated" and therefore a crash isn't possible. So in keeping with the purpose of the thread to discuss what if there WAS a crash I substituted a highly more likely crash scenario. This doesn't mean that I am insisting this crash scenario is going to happen, just that this is the more likely reason. Also, all my points were only to imply the reality if such a crash were to happen--therefore already establishing that BJDs did become obsolete, BJDs completely lost market value, and BJDs were no longer being produced in any really accessible manner for consumption.

Really, I just established a scenario where the topic could be continue to be discussed, as I think it's an interesting emotional conflict of what to do with a doll collection that suddenly becomes monetarily worthless. The inflation/bubble style crash already was ruled out, so an obsolete crash is where I could see this conflict arising. Otherwise, what's the point of posting in this thread if such a thing were "impossible" :P

 

I was only pointing out that the discussion seemed to be veering off topic. I agree that the OP has been pretty well dissected, though!

To answer your points.

Porcelain, composition and even vinyl dolls don't age very well, either, but that doesn't stop people from collecting them. And people are currently producing new porcelain and vinyl dolls meant to resemble (but not be reproductions of) antique dolls. So I could still see people continuing to buy "new" polyurethane bjds (produced using now current methods), even if a new technology/plastic became the norm for production. This unless the new technology is so far superior that the old style dolls look like garbage in comparison, and the new technology is producing what is essentially the same type of doll (i.e, resin, ball jointed, etc.)

So I question your assumption that these bjds would necessarily become worthless. It hasn't happened for other types of dolls. Why should it for these?

 

Well, the assumption from the OP is that there was a "crash" which is what implies they would be monetarily worthless. I don't know how or why, or think that they wouldn't become collector's items for different reasons, but the entire concept of the "crash" assumes they would become monetarily worthless. I was just taking it from there.

 

I think the problem here is the extremes used in the hypothetical, i.e., the comparison of the current bjd market to tulipomania, etc., the idea of the market crashing (versus adjusting downwards), etc.

The way a question is framed affects the debate-- instead of discussing the question at hand, we end up dissecting the question and its underlying assumptions. It's the difference between asking:

"Polyurethane is made from oil. If the price of oil were to increase to $10,000 per barrel overnight, how would this affect your doll buying?"

versus

"Over time, the price of oil has increased. If the price of oil (and polyurethane, an oil derivative) continues to climb, at what point (if any) will your doll buying habits be seriously affected?"

The first question leads to dissection--as in, "The price of oil is not going to rise overnight to $10,000 a barrel, as it never has increased by that percentage before," versus discussing the underlying question.


FWIW, I do believe bjd prices in the secondary market will continue to adjust downward over time-- the current marketplace seems to be undergoing just that, as a result of increased supply and easier access to primary vendors. But a small decrease in the secondary market isn't a crash, although it might seem so to those in the marketplace who have invested with the hope of scalping, or even recouping their money.

It's been said many times that one should collect what one loves-- so that one doesn't need to concern oneself with ones investment losing value. Buying for perceived future value is extremely risky when it comes to collectibles. As you have pointed out, one can't predict the next technology coming down the pike, only that there will be innovation, and that it may affect the hobby. But new technology does not necessarily mean obsolescence-- it may mean a new market. Vinyl dolls replaced composition, but resin hasn't replaced vinyl. Instead a new market emerged.

 

I think most of them are worth what they cost, but if there was a price drop I wouldn't mind.
Infact, I'd be so HAPPY. Lol not exactly made out of money here if you know what I mean x)

 

Everything you said is so true!! And could you imagine how STRETCHED we'd all be if they came out with something that got us all buying it and we STILL wanted the resin BJDs? LOL >.<

Also, about the innovation in technology--it also doesn't always mean that it gets *cheaper* too. I just got my latest Disney Blu Ray for $35.00! I remember when VHS movies were $20 max brand new. And the super exciting collector's editions of video games-- well I just got Halo Reach for the husband for $150! O_o So if something "new and better" comes along and isn't cheaper, maybe that's when we'd see an additional market pop up?

I don't know anything about pullip/blythe, but those things are still popular right? Or did they "crash" due to artificial inflation?

 

Would that also mean that all the dolls on the secondary marketplace would become tulipbulb cheap?

I would get them ALL. (LOL)

 

Since there are plenty of folks on this thread who've said the same thing, that does indicate some demand and that things probably wouldn't bottom out completely!

 

So if there was a crash dolls would be cheaper? YES * W*
But I would feel horrible for the companies. Although bad at fist, I'm sure after wards that both the companies and the buyers would be better than even, and some of less-than-perfect-ones will change there ways!

 

no matter what a doll you love is a doll you love. the whole reason i am getting into this hobby has nothing to do with how much they are worth. i do it because they are very appealing to me. i would hate it if they started to have really un-appealing molds...

 

I could personally care less how much my dolls are worth; it's what they're worth to me personally that matters. ^^

 

I think that everyone might be forgetting a crucial element here. These companies, while they make lovely dolls, are here to make money. I'm afraid that if these dolls dropped TOO much in value, we'd be seeing the closing of MANY companies. Alot of the companies you love and support would cease to exist. Remember that it takes a pretty penny to make some of these dolls, involving everything from Manpower, to insurance, to electric, supplies, etc. I think you'd lose much more of the companies than you'd care to see vanishing.

 

Yeah, I don't see how the majority of companies could possibly survive a dramatic reduction in the value of their products. At first it would be cool to get hold of some of the unattainables at cheap prices, but after that the hobby would get pretty quiet. The new BJD market is fueled by constant new offerings: LEs, new outfits, accessories, wigs, etc.

It would probably make me hang on to my collection harder if the industry did go under from a crash of some kind, knowing that replacing any parts, upgrading bodies, or getting new stuff for them would be a lot harder. So to me the value of my collection would increase. I don't think a whole lot about the monetary value of my dolls, because I'd never get a quarter of their original value back if I suddenly had to sell them off, and I'm very attached so I never want to have to do that!

 

For me the dolls are just fun and i enjoy them very much! I love to take pictures of them, sew for them and have just fun! For me its not an investment for the future because i do a lot with them so the most people would prefer to buy dolls which are "not touched" so the price of touched dolls is not very high i guess....

 

*puts on old person hat* I remember, back in the day when I first joined this fandom, having this debate. And at the time, there was very much a mentality (in fact, I believe more than one person outright stated it as fact) that if you resold a doll you bought, any doll, you'd at LEAST get back what YOU paid for it. Several people were heavily into the idea of them as investments. Now five or so years later, I'm seeing standards sell at 1/2 to 2/3rds of their original price. Heck, I've BOUGHT standards at half their original price. So, I enjoy the way a few years can change our view of the marketplace. ^_^

While I don't expect ABJD to outright CRASH, I think we're veeeeeery close to plateau (people coming in = people going out)/market saturation. It almost feels like right now, there are too many standards for too few buyers. If people can't sell them at a loss second hand, how well can the companies be doing? And I think the move towards limiteds over standards reflect that.

And for the people cheering 'Yay cheep dolls!!' yeah, there WOULD be a temporary glut of cheap dolls as people rushed to get out of the fandom while they could still get something for them. But once the glut of offloaded dolls ends, there wouldn't be as many companies making NEW dolls, so the prices would go up. Also, accessories like wigs and eyes would become rarer, and their increase in price may well mitigate any 'yay cheap dolls' effect on the actual bodies.

There's been some fascinating information on the recession coming out that shows that what is disappearing is the middle ground- luxury goods stores and the discount stores are surviving, and middle ground stores are disappearing. So I'd kind of expect the same thing to happen if we had a crash in ABJD fandom. The luxury expensive companies focusing on rare limiteds would stay in business, because the luxury market can afford to weather a crash. Someone who must have at ANY price and can afford it will continue to do so. And the cheapest dolls would still stay in business, because someone who is buying based on price tag will still pick them. We'd lose mostly the 'middle of the road' companies.

 

Saruna-Chan hit the nail on the head in regards to my feelings on BJD's, and then I read comicbookartist response, and could not help thinking how ironic the response was! From what I understand, the majority of BJDs come from Korea, Japan and China, all know for producing really inexpensive (note I did not say cheap) products. While stationed in Korea, there was always the ability to go on the local economy and have one-of-a-kind products made at a fraction of the cost in the states. If dolls became more affordable, yet retained their quality, I would be more than happy!

Robert

 

If BJD's were suddenly sold at half the price, I would be upset--because it would mean the prices I had been paying all along were inflated. I happily pay what I do now because I believe it to be a fair price. But the fact is, I really have no idea what it costs to produce a BJD. Someone said the resin used to make an EID costs $50. Fine, but I paid $600 for mine. Where exactly does the other $550 go? We can list things that we know to be expenses, but we really don't know the breakdown. Supposing we discovered that the ultimate cost to produce one EID, including everything from sandpaper to rent on the building, was $200. Then how would we feel?

On the other hand, if you think of BJD's as art, then their value is subjective. I don't pay $60 for a faceup because I think the paint is that expensive--I pay for the artist's talent.

 

Yes, when bought in bulk, the amount of resin needed to pour an EID is about 7-8 pounds of resin or about $50. Of course, this ignores miscasts, which occur pretty frequently, and the cost of the silicone itself. For an EID size model, the smooth-on website (a major manufacturer of silicone and urethane) lists a price of about $600. That's for one mold, which can be used only 10 to 20 times. So that works out to 30 to 60 dollars per doll. Of course, the doll itself has to be designed and sculpted, which is skilled labor whether it involves CAD or traditional sculpting from scratch. And someone skilled has to make the mold, the mother mold (support) and actually pour the resin. And it needs to be cast under pressure, which requires the equivalent of an industrial autoclave (pricey). Then the resin spurs left over from casting have to be removed, etc. Finally, there are the people building and running the website, customer support, and all the other stuff involved in the business end.

I'm not finding that $600 to be out of line, frankly, even ignoring their subjective value.

My husband collects customizable resin dinosaurs (even more dorky than dolls, don't you think?), which are typically cast in China. The prices are in line with what we pay for a doll made with Chinese labor, and even a little more expensive.

 

That's the spirit! More dolls! But you know, SOOM probably would still keep their jacked-up prices if they can, which means lots of other companies will too. But if dolls do get cheaper, then it'll be easier to replace messed up resin or whatever.