The State of the Market

I definitely think the economy has a lot to do with it. Just looking at the number of Sumika and Showrooms that have closed here in Tokyo over the last few years I see that there is a lack of demand. Now the Ginza Sumika is closing too. And you can see it all around Tokyo, with lots of luxury brands going under as well.

I'd say saturation is a problem world-wide, but not as much here. There are SO many doll companies and SO many dolls that if you don't get that limited sculpt you like, surely another one like it will pop up soon. Sometimes I consider buying a used doll, but it would have to be significantly cheaper than retail. I know that if I shelled out for something super nice and rare, something that I liked even better would pop up new a month later.

 

I, like the rest of the world, am trying to sell a few dolls at the moment and I agree that the marketplace is dead. People are less willing to shell out on an expensive toy when their weekly grocery shop is twice as expensive as it usually is (For the cost of last month's groceries I could have bought a Volks SD, straight from the company). On the other hand, in theory, now *is* a good time to be buying, since sellers will get desperate and slash their prices just to make a sale and keep themselves fed.

It's just an awful, awful financial climate at the moment.

 

I'm going to ignore the economy factor for a moment and say this....

I think this was bound to happen to the second-hand market eventually, because of growing options and cheaper options for dolls. When I first started collecting dolls and was allowed access to the marketplace I was like "man this is going to be nice because now I can get dolls in good condition for a little less than the full price of a new doll." Then when I saw the price (even on non-limited and readily available sculpts) was the SAME I was like "Wth is this?!"

BJD's was the first market I was ever apart of that sold used items (and sometimes not very gently used) for prices extremely close to the original. So why would I buy something off the MP used that I could just get from a doll company at the same price, or maybe a little higher. It was worth it to ME to pay the $40-$70 more to the company for a brand new doll.

I think the marketplace killed itself because I think more new collectors had the same "wtf..." reaction as I did.

I think people were able to live in this unrealistic bubble for awhile where they could sell a doll for what they paid for it, and that drove the new collectors to the company instead of to the second-hand seller.

Reality check: Things that are used that are not in limited supply and are readily available are NOT ever worth the same price as the new price.

If you walked into a car dealership and they had a brand new car next to a 2 year old car with 50,000 miles on it that were the exact same model, and saw that the price difference was like.... $500 you would be like "uh... new car please." Who, at that point would EVER buy a used car if the price difference was so minimal?

ALSO I think in some cases people went on dolly buying sprees like "I'll decide if I love it when it gets here, and if it doesn't than that's ok can I'll just sell it for the same price." (I'm guilty of this.) Selling for the same price is not the reality anymore, which results in a surplus of dolls on the second-hand market. Which I think might apply to the newer limited dolls too.

Limited dolls are not limited things anymore. It seems like there is a new limited every other day from every other company... so I think some of the "sparkle" has gone out of limiteds and killed the craze quite a bit.

 

Here in Noway we hardly notice much of the bad economy. Hadn't it been for my stay in Sweden a year, I would have had difficulty understanding what people talk about, regarding it.

I remember I sold a couple of dolls a year back, not even that, and they were snatched off the marked after about a week. Now, after returning to the hobby, I had a body for sale for over two months before there was interest (granted, bodies don't sell as easily). Even if it was in new condition I had sense to realize that there is no point in buying used from me at the same price, so I had to lower it quite a bit. It's the same when I browse the MP. I often find dolls I'd die for previously, at very reasonable, sometimes obscenely cheap, prices. Yet I don't buy them. I can't afford it and I think "well, the way things are, that doll isn't going anywhere anytime soon." It's sad.

But I don't doubt it will start building it's way up again. The capitalistic market is known for sinking and raising. After a downward curve it will go up. Art rarely loses it's value for very long at a time.

 

I agree that a lot of it is just the sheer amount of dolls out there. I remember when I could get away with checking a Marketplace section once every couple of days and be up-to-date on most of the threads! But now, there are just so MANY threads in the MP, it's impossible to keep up.

Also... part of it is that it's getting harder to actually find the sales threads you're looking for. For example... if I'm looking for an older CP Delf girl body, I can run a search for "Delf" and "girl" in the Larger Dolls section of the Marketplace. But that will turn up hundreds of threads that include Senior Delfs, Junior Delfs, as well as the regular Delfs. Maybe also a bunch of threads with a Super Senior Delf boy for sale, and also a girl doll from another company.

The sheer inundation of actual sales threads is making it more and more of a "needle in a haystack" situation for shopping, if you're looking for something that is fairly common like a doll body. (Obviously, if you're looking for something with a unique name like a Bermann, or a Soony, that makes it a bit easier).

 

THIS!!!

The 4 letters minimum search things makes in not only incredibly difficult in the MP but the Gallery and other parts of the forum as well...

If they would make it a 2-letter minimum that would make things so much easier... because I think newer people search for (example) Soom Ai and just get "no results" or get everything with the word Soom in it, which may be resulting in people thinking there just ISN'T one for sale. Or if I wanna look for a NS SD sized body..... arrgh! And sellers I think sometimes forget about the search weirdness and don't spell out "natural skin".

I know you can use the wildcard * but .... meh.... I wonder if they could change the letter minimum for searches.

 

I freely admit I'm a bargin hunter when it comes to looking for secondhand dolls. If a doll is at the same price it would be new or more expensive than it would be from the company, I have absoutely no interest, even if its a sculpt I love. Unless there's a lot of extras thrown in (I don't count faceups as part of the markup cost), it's an automatic pass.

Once a doll comes home, it's here to stay, so I don't know what the selling side of the market is like nor do I intend to find out. But I'm perfectly willing to buy if the price is right.

Personally, I'm looking forward to further price slashing.

 

Here's a tip . . . search for "Delf girl" or "Soom Ai" with the quotation marks, and the phrase will be treated as a single word.

 

Oh I agree with TheFontbandit. I hate it especially when I type in like SOOM eyes or something and go through the posts to just find it sold. If it's sold already especially for quite a while with feedback left, I don't understand why you would have the words in the post. It's just annoying because when I search for things, I have to go through your post to see if it's still available when it's not. Imagine multiple posts like that.

I personally don't have a problem with people trying to get what they paid for or close to what they got in the marketplace. If it doesn't sell, naturally, sellers will lower their prices. Although it can be disappointing to buyers that there isn't a great deal, in the end people have to put up with it. There's nothing wrong in being self-interested. It happens in every market not only the dolly market. One has to look this from both sides. I believe I can understand what sellers and buyers do as I have been both. Sellers want to recoup the money that they have lost. While buyers want to get as good of a deal as possible. The market is impersonal and self-motivated.

Also as to what constitutes limited, to some, limited dolls like Unoas are worth the price because some not only appreciate the dolls themselves but the company's history/legacy, specialty, and etc. I wouldn't be too hurry to say that limiteds aren't limiteds anymore. To some, an antique car can be worth hundreds and thousands more than a freshly new factory made BMW, even though the antique car runs slower or has some faults.

I agree the big market has something to do with giving more people alternatives and choices to similar molds and what not. However, don't be surprise when there are those out there that are very loyal to one company not only for the dolls but also for other aspects like the company's history/what they represent.

 

I agree with the OP that it's a number of factors working together. The economy is certainly one - and some countries are more effected than others both in terms of where unemployment has become a bigger issue, and in terms of currency values - with many prices listed in US dollars, it can be either cheaper or more expensive in places where the reverse might have been true two years ago.

Some of the new relatively cheaper doll surely have an effect as well, although I wonder if they haven't expanded the overall global market for doll-related items - certainly there are more people who are willing to part with $200 than with $600 or $1000, so while that may hold back the ability to resell some of the older more expensive dolls, I wonder if it doesn't also increase the market for doll clothes and accessories since it means more dolls out there.

 

Oh what I meant with my limiteds comment was that back in the day companies had fewer limiteds, now it seems like every day there is a new limited doll from a company.

So the DOLLS are limited.... but there are tons of limiteds released every year by tons of companies.

 

From my point of view,

I find that event doll's price pretty much stablized (atleast for VOLKS), because of their rarity and its harder to "find" than to buy...

But yea, just like all the other toy related stuff, if the product is not rare, it will usually go down in price disregarding the market change, but event only stuff will have its values...

 

When the economy took a hit (bigger in some places than others), people who had money to spend suddenly found themselves watching their pennies because they weren't sure if they spent that $300 today on a doll, would they need that at the end of the week when they suddenly lost their job. For the people who set aside a small amount off every pay, suddenly they didn't have even that small amount to spare and their doll fund might have become their grocery money.

I fall into the second category and while I had dolls that I wanted and had been saving for, those plans got shelved until I was more financially stable. Yeah, it sucked and I was not happy about taking the cash I'd set aside for dolls and used it to pay bills and buy groceries, but those things will always come first over dolls.

I have used the MP here and both times that I've bought dolls, it was more of a happenstance kinda thing. I'd punched in the sculpt name for a doll I'd been admiring on a whim and it popped up on the MP for a great price. I hemmed and hawwed for a couple of weeks for both dolls before I PM-ed the sellers. Yes, I could've bought the dolls direct from the companies (or from a dealer in one case), but the price difference was enough to make me go ahead with the MP purchase.

Was I nervous about those purchases? You bet. I was sending several hundred dollars to a complete stranger and there really wasn't anything stopping them from taking my money and running. Would I purchase from the MP again? Yes, but it would need to be a fantastic deal (as it was in the 2 I did buy) and in the case of one of the dolls I'd love to have (Unidoll Ark), the MP is my only chance of getting him as he's been discontinued by the company.

I do think there is some saturation in the second-hand doll market. You see a lot of the same sculpts for sale and whenever LE's come out, there's always a flux of either full dolls or LE parts that suddenly hit the MP. I think people see this and if they're patient, they'll gather the parts separately to eventually get the whole doll. People are also being choosier about the bodies they get and wanting the newer ones that pose like a dream so other, older bodies aren't going to move as well.

 

(Please note, I don't actively keep up with much of the BJD hobby so this post is all just wild guesses derived from what I see when shopping in the MP myself/on LJ. It isn't meant to be any offense to anyone, it's all hypothetical.)

Personally, I think the whole BJD 'culture' if you could call it that has changed a lot, and moved more towards 'Fad-ism', something I was always used to when I would browse other types of dolls (actions figs, fashion dolls, barbies, etc) idly before I got into BJDs about 7 years ago. There will always be one or two 'in' companies of the moment that are producing the latest cool thing, like the soom monthly dolls or what have you, and people tend to push themselves financially to get such editions within the window that they are available, often necessitating the selling off of older dolls to afford the new. As they do this, buying the new more realistic fashion-doll like BJDs and selling the old more classically asian-styled BJD-like ones, the old look of the larger heads and more 'anime' faces becomes out of 'fashion' and no one comments in the gallery on such dolls or purchases them.

There was always the same setup of Fad-driven collecting as I recall it, with people who collected say, Barbies, back in the day, or Tonner dolls: A combination of people selling off semi-recent things to get another newer thing, and of things long unavailable (old limiteds, in the BJD world that would be like Bermann, and such) coming back into style and being sought after even if they weren't the hot ticket when freely available. I don't recall Bermann really being that popular at all back when the original 77 was around, while some liked him many I knew then thought him too skinny/tall/realistic/odd/whatever.

So, I think that creates a sort of pattern of the new hot things being really wanted, some old things being like holy grails, and absolutely nothing in the middle being even looked at, because it is sort of like yesterday's news. I recall with fashion dolls this pattern, something that was going on Ebay for like $300 going for $50 6 months down the road when they weren't new and hard to get on auction anymore, because everyone turned around looking for a quick profit/money to get something newer and flooded the market with the once-desirable doll. I am not saying things with BJDs are that extreme yet, but the pattern of consumption now is much closer to that than it was when I got into this hobby.

And I think the companies do this on purpose, these constant 'limiteds' (many just recycled headsculpts or sculpts not that dramatically different or special vs. their regular edition stuff, plus some nifty accessories, and voila), as a system of 'manufactured collectability' that keeps their products desirable and exciting in an oversaturated marketplace, without having to wait until (as the case with dollshe) their dolls become worth thousands long after they were made, even though while many of them (ie Bermann, Husky) were being made they weren't even that sought-after. After all, the latter system of real collectability through age and rarity does absolutely nothing to profit the -company- making the doll, it only profits the lucky few who have kept them for like 8 years in their private collection and can now make $4000 off something they probably paid $600 for. I would imagine minorly altering a sculpt or throwing together a new one, adding a few new parts, and having them fly off the shelves madly for a month at $1000 or whatever they are charging, does a lot more for the company's pocketbook, and it gives the company as a whole the aura of being a 'cool' company to get dolls from where before, say, no one really noticed Soom by comparison to Luts, Volks, whatever. 'Manufactured collectability' allows the companies to profit in the present from the overall hype and collectability BJDs have come to have associated with them over time.

But while this system of rollercoaster demand likely does wonders for the company's profits, it ruins the secondary marketplace, as things so quickly become 'uncool' and unwanted, plus people are forever pinched money-wise trying to get the latest greatest new thing, meaning they are far less likely to be shopping secondhand unless looking for the, well, new thing that they missed out on last month/didn't like then but figure it's cool now they have seen owner pictures of it, and now they have to buy at an inflated cost in the MP. And then the overall aesthetic shifts with that, and older-styled dolls as a whole become less wanted, and no one comments on those, so they no longer seem special to most people who let us face it, want something that will get looked at and commented on and whatnot after they have it all customized. Something that is fashionable. I think that is sort of human nature for the most part, and is seen throughout society.

Personally, though, all of this works just fine for me, as I still like all the older molds, don't care for the new aesthetic, and don't give a rat's posterior whether or not people find it cool or what have you. I greatly preferred the hobby the way it was when I got into it and everything was special and of good quality and BJDs were unique and stylized, so I still go for things reminiscent of that time period. And with things as they are, I buy all my dolls off the MP, for very reasonable prices... And I buy very sparingly, with no plans at all to sell unless something truly does not work out. I get quite attached to my dolls and 7 years into this hobby, have only just bought my 9th doll. I find it a lot less stressful that way, than even bothering to try and keep up with what's hip and new.

 

On the topic of the marketplace being hard to search...

If someone has a lot of stuff listed that's no longer for sale and has been receieved by the buyer then it shouldn't be there and can be considered keyword spamming, so report it and the mods will check it out and determine if they're breaking rules. Of course, you do sometimes get false positives not for the main sales post, but for replies (i.e. "I sent you a PM about the Black Fer" floating around somewhere on page 3 in a year old sales post).

And there are reasons that the mods have pointed out many times before why it's too difficult on the servers to have 2 and 3 letter word searches. It does stink, but if you're willing to put in a few minutes' effort you can find listings for dolls with 2 and 3 letter names. It is a hassle, no denying that, but it's usually possible with a little bit of time and effort invested.

Hopefully the new marketplace format for dolls will cut down on false positives like the male delf head being sold alongside another company's girl head comign up for a delf girl search!

 

I think another think that hurts the second hand market, is the fact that (at liest from what I have seen) most BJD collectors are a wholly different kind of collector than most. They collect for more sentimental reasons than monetary value. also, they seem less fazed by the "this is a rare..." catch phrase of most other collectors. After all, collectors in most other areas seem to want something more for it's rarity and worth, than actual aesthetics alone. This is definitely going to hurt the going rate of older dolls in my opinion.

 

I do agree with all the aforementioned reasons listed in the OP. But what I really blame for the sudden swelling of the secondhand markets are the collectors themselves.

A significantly younger demographic of collectors with money either earned or from their parents flooded into the hobby. Compounded with a large portion of collectors who really don't know what the hell they want, forgive my language. I think a LOT about whether or not I'm about to drop 1 g on a doll. I measure every aspect of it right down to the toes. I get so upset seeing 'oh i bought this but it just didn't work out' or other such flippant reasons behind large sums of money spent on things that have relatively little value anywhere else irl. I mean, c'mon...did you REALLLLLY REALLY think about whether or not it'd work before buying it? How well do you know yourself? I've noticed more and more people who just refuse to think seriously about their posts online, let alone what kind of purchases should be made with this kind of money. Over-estimation of one's financial stability, or just lack of responsibility in that department is a HUUUUUGE contributing factor to both the rapid growth of professional companies spreading like wildfire as well as the current second-hand predicament.

 

Besides the sheer number of scultps to choose from thinning out the market, the pricing in the Marketplace doesn't seem that competitive. When I've gone looking for a head sculpt, for instance, that is neither limited nor discontinued, in most cases the seller has it priced at almost what they originally bought it for. I've seen a lot of: "I need the money and I just want to get what I paid for it." But why would I want to buy a used doll or head, often with a face-up I don't like and will have to wipe and may have stained the resin, from an individual with no accountability when I can buy it brand new from the company for the same price, or maybe $10-$20 more? The same goes for wigs.

 

I've noticed the market for doll things has been extremely soft lately, and I think a lot of it is the economy. A lot of people are unemployed or underemployed or worried about losing their jobs now, and I know dolls would be one of the first things to go for me if I hit a money crunch.

Also I think there have been some shifts in people's tastes, so things that were incredibly desirable a few years ago don't fetch as high a price now.

I've actually stopped buying from Yahoo!Japan entirely because the dollar is so weak against the yen. Last time I bought a doll on Y!J it was something like 110 yen to the dollar, maybe even 115. Now? It's in the mid to high 80s to a dollar. Yikes.

 

I think there's a whole mix of factors that influences things. The bad economy is really going to put a damper on things -- less people are buying causing dolls to sit longer in the marketplace. People needing money just want to make a quick sale. It's actually not a bad time to be a buyer if you have the cash, as there are some great deals to be had right now. I wish I could do more buying, but the economy's forced me to cut really cut down on my spending. Overall, my market place experiences have been very positive, and I usually check there first now before I go to company websites. What I also think is an interesting point is the one about newer dolly engineering. When a new body comes out that has been considerably tweaked, the older bodies often do go for less -- which is great if you're looking to buy and older body, not so good if you want to sell one.

As for what's trendy now, that's hard for me to say. There seems to be a lot more interest in 70+cm dolls, more realism, more fantasy elements, but the hobby encompasses a lot of people with a wide variety of tastes so I don't know whether or not to think of it as a major contributing factor. Personally, I could do without the Soom monthlies and prefer a lot of older sculpts, and I'm sure there are other people that don't fall into the present trends even though there's a lot of interest in dolls like the ones Soom has been producing. Then you get the people who hybridize and might put an older head on a newer more posable body...

skwerlie makes a good point about ease in which people can buy direct -- I can see that as a major factor in people's buying habits.