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The State of the Market

Jul 5, 2010

    1. I can actually understand or believe to understand where pinkbunnygirlmoo comes from about how sellers are basing their prices on sentimentality but not actually what the market accepts at the moment. I see quite a few sellers that have a feeler post. I can understand why they put it up, usually it's monetary issues where the seller has to let go one of their dolls to help fund something else or save up money. It's usually a doll that the seller has no choice but to put up and would have like to keep it instead under better circumstances. Although I understand this, I tend to avoid posts with feeler threads because it means *to me the seller is usually pricing the doll higher than what it's really worth due to the seller's emotions about the doll itself. Like the mentality of "I wouldn't see the feeler doll go for any less because I only want to let it go if I get what I paid or profit."
       
    2. Just a thought to add:
      Perhaps the rise and rise of alternatives such as the Dollfie Dream and A-Zone have taken some of the headwind from the resin based dolls.
      There was always a group of owners which picked up the resin versions of LE Volks such as the Rozen Maidens, Chi, Yumi & Sachikos which now have a more ready 2D-3D route through the DDs.
      Looking at some of the insane markups on YJ for some of the LE DDs and thinking I can easily pick up 2 and up to even 4 resin dolls for the asking price of say a DD Saber and even the recently released DD Sakura. Perhaps thats where some of the "hot" money went.
       
    3. I've noticed this as well... there seems to be a cyclic effect in regards to popularity. Things that were once disregarded become more of a "must-have" item. I've seen some "event heads" that flooded the marketplace so badly people were selling them at bargain prices a few months after their release just to get rid of them. Then a couple of years later, they become one of those "gotta have it" heads and sell for double or triple that original sales price.

      I was excited for that as well with the new MP Beta! I'll often be searching for bodies or dolls in a particular skin tone, only to turn up a thread selling that doll in the wrong skin tone and a different doll in the correct one! :sweat It really just does seem like there are so MANY sales threads that it's just difficult to find what you're looking for. Also, the "free for all" write-your-own sales descriptions made many posts confusing, when you're running a search.

      For example... to go back to my "Delf girl" body example, sometimes it was hard to tell in the old MP-style ads what exactly was for sale. Sometimes the headers would look like "Lots of dolls for sale", or "Various SD bodies", and I'd have to click on the thread only to find that it was a false positive in the search. Doing this over and over gets kind of mind-numbing sometimes.

      None of my posts were meant to be critiques of the search function at all. I know that searching for shorter words really bogs down the server, and it's something that can be worked around. It's more the sheer volume of digging through sales threads that just makes things a bit more tedious now. On the other hand, it means more opportunities... especially compared to back in the day, when there were fewer sales threads and some now-common items only turned up once in a blue moon.


      Also, I think a lot of it is the difference in depreciation now, versus several years ago. Just a handful of years ago, there weren't nearly as many doll companies out there... and it was sometimes extremely difficult to get a doll even from the few existing companies! So when a doll popped up on the secondhand market, the seller was pretty much guaranteed to make back their original out-of-pocket expense at the very least. Dolls didn't really decrease in value. I actually remember that being a major factor in my decision to make the plunge into the hobby. ("If I don't really like it, I can just sell the doll and make my money back, no harm no foul.")

      But that just isn't going to be the case anymore for most dolls, because of the following factors:
      • The ease of buying a new doll from most companies directly from their English website or through a dealer
      • New engineering in bodies, double-joints and increased stability in some cases
      • Fluctuating exchange rates
      • Factors like yellowing and normal wear
      • Increased market competition
      Someone may have ordered their Delf Shiwoo through a service back in 2004 for $600, but they just won't be able to sell it for the same price nowadays. But... since that used to be the case, I think it can be hard to realize. I see a lot of sales threads for dolls that are still listed for the same price as a new one from the original company, even though the market value for that doll may have dropped.
       
    4. This. A a buyer I now want to see significant discounts in the MP otherwise I'd just buy a new doll from the company. With more EU dealers it's easier for me to avoid import taxes and buying new is just more appealing.

      I can see with the proliferation of dolls and companies the vogue at the moment is for innovation and novelty. But perhaps in future there will be a pendulum swing towards collectable, older dolls? Not to the extent and inflated prices they had in the recent past but as part of the natural change in fashions in the MP.
       
    5. I believe more people would be willing to make larger purchases from the secondhand market if the sellers would allow layaways longer than a month. If the sellers make the payments non refundable what do they have to lose? For the buyer who wants to balance their finances in the troubled economy but still want to enjoy this luxury layaway is often the answer.
      Since companies now offer layaway it's often easier to buy the dolls brand new even if they cost more than they are on the second hand market.
       
    6. I myself have avoided offering layaway on dolls in the past, because I didn't want to pay fees on every payment the buyer made, and maybe I'm wrong, but I expect others feel the same. I'd hate to be selling a substantially priced doll with several payments being made and fees sucked out of each one. Of course, I may be mistaken about how much the fees would be or if that would even happen, but if it helps, that's why at least I haven't offered layaway.
       
    7. Good point. I didn't think about the fees granted since it is layaway you could charge more to cover the percentage the fees take out. Since it is layaway the payments are more managable.
       
    8. ...aren't the fees a very small difference? I don't think paypal has the sliding scale of percentages like eBay does on what their cut is. The extra fees would be and extra thirty cents for each payment after the first as compared to a single payment all in one lump -- the rest would, to my understanding, be exactly the same. At least in terms of transactions without currency conversion, you get charged the 2.9% fee whether you're receiving $100 or $1000, to the best of my knowledge. 2.9% of $1000 is still 2.9% of $1000, even if it's taken out ten times in $2.90 chunks. I doubt most people would argue over adding thirty cents or so to each payment for the ease of paying over time.
       
    9. Personally I avoid long layaways because I straight up find them stressful. I find it extremely difficult to get buyers to adhere to a payment schedule -- a lot of people seem to think that "layaway" means "I pay the initial deposit now and pay the rest as late as I possibly can" -- and I don't feel comfortable spending money until the transaction is complete in case something goes wrong, even if payments are nonrefundable. What if something happened to the doll on my end? Furthermore I've seen instances where people backed out of a layaway in which all payments were nonrefundable, and then kicked up a huge fuss demanding their money back.

      Basically for me the sooner a transaction is over the sooner I can be stress-free. I recently did a long layaway for a very expensive doll and while the transaction went well, just having it up in the air for that long was incredibly stressful for me. I like to have my transactions complete as quickly as possible!
       
    10. chibaraki: I feel the same as you, it's fine for companies to offer Layaway but as a private seller, who often needs the money (or I wouldn't be offering to sell the doll in the first place!) or simply wants the money to fund another doll purchase, layaway is just not an option. People flake on deals, just because you've said it's non-refundable, how would that play with ebay or a credit card company if they demanded a refund? I honestly don't know if they would uphold a private agreement? It seems potentially loaded with grief to offer layaway.
       
    11. I learned how to collect dolls through the MP.

      It taught me to earn what I wanted, and to change what wasn't working out. I learned how to spot scalpers or be wary of bad traders... I was able to take a second look at dolls who I thought looked horrible in company photos and appreciate them in a new light.

      I started off small and worked my way up by buying used dolls in good condition [that came from a good company]. All I needed was a little sandpaper to remove seams, new elastic to restring them, and a good faceup from a new artist. And when I'd let that one go, I was always able to upgrade: get another used doll from the MP that came from another high quality company. Sometimes I'd get lucky with the limiteds. I tend not to spend money from my personal accounts to buy dolls. I sell some, to obtain the ones that I think will suit my characters more. If those don't work out, then the cycle continues.

      That's not to say that I don't appreciate new dolls. I still buy some from time to time. But as lovely as that new-resin smell is, it's just not as satisfying to me as purchasing a doll that belonged to someone else. There's history there that appeals to me.

      I've been here for 5 years and despite the overcrowding, I can still navigate just fine. And you can find almost anything in the MP now. There are limited doll heads selling for $300, that were IMPOSSIBLE to get a hold of back in the day... Some that used to sell at $700-$900 a few years back. And now I see them all the time.

      The only part of the doll hobby that I don't agree with, that affects the MP, is the influx of new companies making dolls with cheap, weak resin. What set the standard for this hobby were companies who made good, resilient, high quality resin [dolls] that could withstand small amounts of abuse and last a long time. As pretty as some of that ethereal resin is, it's softer and warps in color faster, making it easier for the doll to depreciate in value. :< They just aren't worth it in the long run...
       
    12. That's where I am currently. I've bought several of my dolls second-hand on the MP and had nothing but good experiences, but oddly enough lately there don't seem to be any good bargains like there were even a few months ago. I suspect it may be partly financial desperation on some peoples' parts-whether they believe they'll recoup their investment they need to try to make as much money as they possibly can. So they start at new price or above. It's understandable, but I'm not going to bite. For instance, I've seen a doll on my wish list come up twice in the last month. This is not a limited or particularly rare doll. The first time, the doll was listed at $80+ dollars over the new, naked price on the website and the doll was significantly and unevenly yellowed. The second time it was listed at a little under the current new price with face-up. That did not interest me because I don't pay for face-ups and the doll in question was several years old. Yes, this doll can only be ordered at certain times, but come on, people! If I have to pay new price then I can do a layaway and get a pristine new doll if I'm willing to wait and yes, I'm willing to wait if this is the best the MP can do.

      I can understand why private individuals don't want to offer layaway, and I don't mind buying a doll who needs a little TLC-in fact, I enjoy it. But I'll only buy that doll used if I can get a significant discount and if I can't, then I'm fine with going with one of the dealers who offers a three-, four- or six- month layaway and paying a little more for new. As was said above, it helps with the doll budgeting and cuts down on my impulse purchases if I know I'm already paying on a doll.
       
    13. Bless you for this :).

      Which is why I will never put a doll up for sale at what I paid for it. Time has passed, that much more oxidation has happened in the resin, like it or not. It has had my hands on it and possibly even my cats' paws. It is in no way as new as it was when I bought it, by virtue of the laws of nature; why should I expect you to pay me back every cent I paid?

      This of course isn't an answer to the original question. But on that point I think everyone else has covered what I would have said: Economy + sculpt glut = slow 2ndary market.

      Oh! and Enki, I'm totally with you on the second-hand doll front. There's just something altogether satisfying about being able to "rescue" or "rehome" a previously loved doll, to me. .... I guess this is why it's good that they don't actually require feeding, like cats. I'd bring them all home if I could. ;)
       
    14. I think it depends on what kind of doll you're talking about. If someone put up a Limited Edition Volks William SD17 up for $1800, I can imagine people fighting for it. They would care less if some oxidation happened, it happens with all dolls that comes out of the factory. Then you would also have to factor in other things other than the doll itself. William SD17 was only available to obtain if one had to pay to go to Japan, pay for the Kobe Cruise trip, and the airfare back. The time itself is also an implicit cost. Or perhaps the person already living in Japan obtained it. It would be absolutely foolish in this case for one to price the doll cheaper than what most people would be willing to pay.

      There is also customer loyalty when it comes to doll companies. Sure, there are a plethora of doll companies, but I can imagine that there are those out there that don't only buy the doll itself but also because of the company's integrity/history or etc. To me, there's a difference between buying from BBB and Volks because the companies themselves handle things differently.
       
    15. These are good points although the doll probably has a higher chance of being lost and damaged in the mail than in your own home unless you did not pack it in a safe place and you have children or animals that could reach it. You could also have buyers agree to a set payment schedual by letting them know in advance what you expect. If you keep all communications and transaction records with exactly what they agreed upon at the time of purchase then no matter what kind of fuss they raise they would still not be able to hold a case against you.

      Dispite the positive feedback a buyer might have you can never know what kind of unscrupulous things they might end up doing. Although if they have feedback specifically for positive layaway transactions don't you think they would be a little more trustworthy? Den of Angels helps sellers by banning unscrupulous buyers from the marketplace and have rules against owning multiple accounts.

      However it eventually comes down to preferance and circumstance. Ultimately the seller has the right to choose how they would sell their merchandice. The layaway option would just help a seller reach more buyers of varying budgets.
       
    16. I can definitely see both sides of the layaway issue. There are dolls in the MP right now that I would snap up in a heartbeat if the seller would accept a longer layaway. The longest layaway I participated in was 3 months and went smoothly on both ends.

      Unfortunately, that's not always the case... just a quick look through the Problem Transactions forum shows how often layaway can go wrong, so I understand why a lot of sellers are very cautious when it comes to long-term layaways.

      I have PMed a seller about a longer layaway than stated in their sales thread, linking to specific posts in my feedback that refer to layaway... and I had my long-layaway offer accepted. So sometimes specific layaway feedback can help. Not always, but sometimes.


      Also, like Enki and Baakay, I am also one of those who prefers secondhand dolls when I can get them. If I'm in the market for a particular standard sculpt, I'll often "stalk the MP", just waiting for that sculpt to pop up. I even try to by damaged dolls when I can. Part of it is the discounted value, of course. But I also love that feeling of "adopting" or "rescuing" a damaged doll.
       
    17. @Inmylove: of course you're right that there are always exceptions on the very high-end / rare / out of production but super-coveted end of things. But what I was speaking of was my own comfort level with selling my own dolls - many of which were second hand when I got them and almost none of which are particularly unusual - for the price I paid for them. :) It doesn't feel right to me.

      It also doesn't seem an awfully clever way to go, given the current state of the market. Since a whole lot of what we see on the secondary are standard sculpts in the low-to-mid range of price, it seems to me to be self-defeating to price too high if you really want to move resin out. And since "the state of the market" was the original question... well... Course, I could be wrong, have been before, will be again, and so forth.

      @TheFontBandit: Yes! Sometimes the "rescue me!" dolls are the most fun... "can this face be saved?" :)
       
    18. Absolutely true -- the chances of something unfortunate happening to a doll that is in my home and safely boxed is basically zero. But there could be a fire, or a flood, or a burglary, or I could get into a wreck on the way to the post office, or or or. Heck, maybe I'd manage to knock the doll box over JUST WRONG and cause tragic breakage (I'm super clumsy, it could happen). Basically I don't spend money I get from layaways until the doll is in the new owner's hands because it is POSSIBLE, though unlikely, that something could happen to the doll.

      I also don't trust Paypal not to side with the buyer if they decide to demand their money back and file a Paypal claim for it. I also know that if you have too many disputes filed against you they'll shut down your account, even if the disputes are on payments too late to file a claim on (it apparently happened to a seller I filed a dispute against). So there's that.

      Pretty much in the end I do what I'm comfortable with, and I have to admit, in the instances I've offered long layaways it's because I knew the market was soft and I REALLY needed to sell a high-priced item.
       
    19. I'm the same, once they fall into my clutches the dolls have about as much chance of escaping as light from a black hole. :XD:

      As for the MP, it's the only way for me to get certain resin colors like Soom's pre-Chrom normal skin. But the price does have to be right. If the seller offers layaway I'm more likely to buy something a bit more expensive. I have a lot of floating heads so I scour the MP even if I don't have the money to spend at the moment. There's a bit of the thrill of the hunt on the MP that you don't get when buying from a company website.
       
    20. I'm the same way. I don't have any money to spend at present but I always look. Figure if something came up that I couldn't live without, I'd find a way to afford it.