The State of the Market

I think a lot of things offered at the market place are things people can live without. The really special things get snatched up pretty fast, but all the common things remain. A few years ago a doll, any doll, for sale was special, now something rare going for a good price is special. I recently put a limited doll up for sale and put it on hold half an hour later, while I also have something generic and (since two weeks) outdated for sale and I don't expect anyone jumping on that any time soon.

 

Actually in my experience this isn't really true. I payed considerably less for my middling milage, working condition, 40+ year old classic car than I did for my high mileage eight year old economy car. The price compared to that of a new luxury car is laughable. Unless a car is immaculately restored, excessively popular, or antique to the point of it being odd that the thing has survived at all, the chances of it going for the price of a new car is very slim. Used is still used. And the truth is that if you are buying a car that old it's because you want a car that old and are willing to put up with the inconveniences that come with it, like an AM only radio, or no seat-belts in the back seat. And lets not forget that they require quite a bit of TLC just to keep them running. This makes the market for them considerably smaller and makes them worth less.

Older dolls are the same way. While the history will appeal to some, they are more fuss. No UV protection means that you have to be more careful about yellowing. Older joint systems mean that posing is harder. And chances are, even if the mold is still available, resin color has changed making replacement parts harder to find in the event that something terrible happens to your doll's hand. While limited availability will drive price up, maintenance will drive the price down. And it will drive down the number of people who want the doll. I don't think it's as big a factor in dolls as it is in cars, but it surely is a factor.

I have to admit that when I browse the marketplace I'm either looking for a bargain or something I can't buy new. There has to be some incentive for me to buy the used item over a new one because the risk is higher. That said I like bargain hunting in the MP, and I'm not looking for major discounts, just to save myself a bit of extra pocket change.

 

I think some of those things you mentioned are maybe not big issues to everybody. Not everyone places posability as a top priority, or even likes the look of double joints. Some dolls who have added flexibility come with their own quirks as well. A cared for NS doll tends not to show yellowing that strongly either (this is coming from someone who has a lot of older NS dolls). I have a few with some noticeable color change (though one is French resin and that's to be expected), but most don't stand out as being that yellow -- they are less yellow than some companies new NS resin colors. Considering doll color can vary by batch, there's no guarantee that you can find perfectly matching replacement parts on a doll bought new.

Some of the older dolls I've purchased of the MP need their strings tightened, but there has been very little extra maintenance involved. That's not to say that people should automatically assume they're going to get back every penny they put into the doll originally if they go to resell their dolls -- there's a lot of factors there that can effect pricing. And true, some people do prefer to buy new. However, there are a lot of dolls that hit the MP that are in really nice condition. Used does not automatically equal wear and tear.

I would think where the risk would really fall is in how good the seller is at being upfront about damage/mods/repairs/etc -- not to mention whether or not the seller is a flake. However, my MP experiences have been very positive, and even buying direct from a company there is no guarantee that nothing will ever go wrong. If nothing else, buying off the MP allows me to save on shipping, avoid wait times, and purchase some dolls that are not as readily available.

 

@Opifex
The car was just an example. No need to nitpick. Perhaps I should have compared an Authentic Ming Dynasty Vase to an Authentic New Tiffany Vase. Like dolls, vases can crack, yellow, and fade. Yes, please don't underestimate the importance of history. Not everyone minds the big issues. I said, some not only appreciate the dolls but also the company's history and legacy. Not all or everyone, like you will.

Like every other market, nothing (objects wise) is worth (instrumental value) anything unless someone is willing to pay for it.

 

I've sold quite a few dolls over the years. And I find that it really just depends on how popular the sculpt is. There's the bad economy, but honestly I think it has more to do with the popularity of the sculpt than anything else. I haven't had troubles selling my dolls within a couple of weeks of posting a marketplace thread. As long as you aren't inflexible with price, you could sell the most unpopular sculpt. It's just harder.

I find the biggest problem with people not getting their dolls sold (or getting their group orders/splits to go through in time for the limited sculpt they want) is just that they ask too much, or that there is too many available at the same price. I remember how many SOOM Breccia splits just didn't go through because the person wasn't willing to pay more for the part they were splitting off. I tried to make the rest of the Breccia parts that I was splitting off as cheap as possible to get my Breccia head. Unfortunately, I realized I didn't much like her head soon after I made the first payment for her, so I just sold my Breccia head for about $30 USD cheaper than the cheapest Breccia head in the MP. I prefer selling as soon as I know I don't like the head, rather than waiting. Sometimes the molds increase monetary value over time, but even the Sards will be replaced with some new favorite soon. So, I just prefer to sell while I know that everyone is still looking for the doll.

The saturated market is really just another word for "unpopular" sculpt in my opinion. There are still companies that make fairly unique, limited dolls that get good resale value. While, I just (hopefully) sold my limited Everpurple sculpt for $50 less than it's original price. The way I see it, you really have to be prepared to lose that $50 if you want your doll sold. Because someone might put up the same for even cheaper, so I like to sell them fast. I don't know if that is the best strategy (probably a terrible one!), but at least I don't have to worry about maintaining a MP thread for weeks. That gets really stressful when you are busy!

 

I wasn't nitpicking. You gave an example. I took your example and used it to show a differing opinion. I didn't even really disagree that history can add value. I simply pointed out how age devalues. It was a counter point to the argument, not a personal attack.

Certainly resin upkeep dosn't come to the level of car upkeep. I'm pretty sure I'm not going to get a doll home to discover that the drains in it's air vents got clogged, and subsequently have a few years worth of fetid rain water spew onto my feet as I try to open them (which happened with my old '64 Corvair ). But few things age without at least some level of added fragility or needed care. Even if it's something as simple as having to spray some UV coating on the doll to compensate for non-UV protected resin, or a bit of sueding to keep old school knee joints from doing and Irish jig when you go to pose your doll, its added time, effort, and possibly money. Me, I like a project so a little work needed is no problem to me, but I have seen threads where owners complain about the fact that companies don't sand seams, or that dolls sometimes need restringing right away to get the tension to the optimum level, and other sundry "problems" that new dolls sometimes have. The argument usually runs something like "We pay unreasonably large sums of money for these dolls. Why don't they come absolutely perfect?" And there tends to be support for them by at least some of the member base. So for some, even a minimum of fuss is unacceptable given the high cost of your average doll.

 

@Opifex
Oh, it wasn't a personal attack. I hope you don't feel this way. The car example was actually nocturneofsilence's post. A mere response to her if you've seen before my post. I thought it was nitpicking because I didn't exactly care whether it was a car or something else, just something to support my view on why someone else might value the doll not just because it is a doll. It just seemed that you disagree history matters because you said "used is still used" and "...they are more fuss" Sorry If I assumed wrong.

 

Though the argument could also run like this -- if new dolls tend to need some tweaking anyway, what's the difference between getting one new and getting one second hand? Unless a doll is advertised as needing something fixed, we are talking a pretty minimum amount of fussing. Plus even if a person buys a doll new that they're happy with right out of the box, that doll is going to need regular maintenance anyway (strings tightened, dirt/stains removed etc). Fussing is par for the course with bjds.

There are some people that seem to come into the hobby without fully realizing what it entails or what bjds were actually made for. BJDs are supposed to be tweaked by their owners -- they aren't completely finished pieces right out of the box, and that's the point of them, really. The owner is supposed to make the doll their own and get creative with it. Doesn't mean that everyone has to love maintenance or modding or anything like that, but they do need to adjust their expectations a little. A lot of those people are going to have a tougher time being satisfied whether a doll is new or old, because they're expecting bjds to be something they're not -- maintenance free perfect finished display pieces.

 

I agree dolls will need some work to make them right for each owner. But thats by the by in the marketplace because we know not everyone buys with that knowledge. I think you both have valid points about the variable value of older dolls and how rarity has to be balanced about wear and tear in each case.

That's a bummer. I've not had any experience with layaways but it's something I would have always offered. Maybe I should be more cautious and less keen to believe in good business practice across the board.

I've been watching the price of 1/3 DZ Mo heads recently. Because they're limited I was planning on selling mine (brand new) for a little less than the price of a non-limited DZ head for fairness and a quick sale. I see they're going for a lot less, however. I'm a little surprised there's not more market for them considering the interest when they were first released but I never counted on a free event head paying me back.

 

Absolutely agree with Lycansea that people overvalue their dolls. Sellers have to accept the crummy state of the financial world right now. There are many, many dolls and parts of dolls that I would have gone head-on for new if I were financially able, but with jobloss and paying for school, trying to make it by nickel-and-diming yourself to rent each month... I haven't bought a thing doll related aside from scale miniatures on ebay since, well... over a year and a half ago, anyway. It's why I only visit this forum periodically... too much want and not enough have.

I'm sorry to say it, but with a very large segment of the world population in this reduced or nonexistent state of fiscal freedom, now is not the time to expect $3000, no layway, $1000 down for your fullset 2003 Hound. You know? There is a slight attitude of entitlement when it comes to rarer used dolls, as though because they could command thousands three years ago, they should still be worth that much, if not more. Especially now that most companies have adjusted their MIB retail prices to accomodate the new economy. And really, good on them for seeing that quantity of sales will always create more revenue than high prices. We would do well as resellers to take that motto more to heart.

 

I had a lot of fun reading this thread, it’s very interesting! What I’d have to say has already been said before, but I just wanted to voice that I’m in much agreement that it is a combination of all said factors. Everybody has a different position and collecting style, on top of the events which trigger the effects, it collectively slows the market.

If I were to break it down to me personally though, my reason for lack of high spending in the marketplace is due completely to the economy and my current position in life. I started to save for my first doll when I was 15. I had a job, minimal expenses, and all around more luxury money. Now that I’m 20 and paying for college on a commission job which is declining to the point where I’m lucky if I can make minimum wage, I just can’t buy any more dolls. At the beginning of the year I sold an SD head (after a few weeks of sitting in the MP) because it’d be over a year before I could possibly afford a body. I used that money to downgrade to a tiny, which I found on the marketplace for a fantastic deal.

Right now the marketplace seems like a “goldmine” to a buyer, more specifically in the wigs and clothing department (at least the type of stuff I search for). Buying secondhand is always my first choice if the item is cheaper than retail and in decent condition. I don’t really mind if I need to restyle a wig a bit or wash the clothes, if it saves me $15 plus international shipping, win.

 

I'm sure you're right; it's a combination of things. I feel like the biggest contributor is the economy. With the stimulus packages, the difficulty finding and keeping a job and healthcare being what it is luxury items (anything that isn't food, shelter, doctor, etc) goes right out the window.

The really nice thing about dolls is that more and more people are discovering ABJDs so hopefully the market is expanding and hopefully adjusting to meet demands and current budgets. ^^

 

Actually, a Haute Hound CAN still command yea bucks in a recession. I get what you're trying to prove, but that particular guy doesn't happen to be a good example! When it comes to certain rare grail type dolls, the demand-curve becomes as flat & inelastic as it is for heroin... the target-market will just always want that item at any price. If that doll cannot be had anywhere else, its price is free to go nuts. The Stingy-Buyers' Club doesn't get to set the price in these cases, you know?

Further, the people who're shopping in that price-range aren't the ones who are asking for 6-month layaways, or scrimping for bargains, to begin with. A hunter with her sights set on a Haute Hound already has those three thousand-dollar bills stashed behind her couch cushions, & is ready to jump when he appears. Collectors of limiteds & rarities approach shopping a little differently than do the "first see, then want, & then save up for it" collectors.

(Also do remember that not everybody is having a recession - some countries' economies are humming along quite nicely, while the US clutches its aching wallet, so international collectors may still be happy to plonk down that three grand. World economy isn't always fair for everyone at once.)

 

I agree with you a lot Lycansea. I think sometimes sellers have a hard time admitting they can't get back what they paid and need to take a loss to actually get a sale. I know I've taken quite a few losses when selling, but over the years I've successfully sold a lot of dolls as my interests and desires have changed. I don't know if I would say it is necessarily that a sculpt is unpopular so much as supply way outstrips demand, which is not necessarily the same thing.

To take an obvious example, when I first got into the hobby Yo Tenshi Yuki from Volks easily commanded prices of $800+ At the time there had been few Yo releases and Yuki had been an extremely limited Japanese event only doll. In October 2007, Volks released Yuki (and Yuh) as Pre-order for all VS members who made it to Sato during a 2 week period. The price immediately plummeted. For a long time in 2007 and early 2008 one could pick either doll up on Y!J for $350+fees/shipping from a service. The price is just not going to go back up, the market was flooded.

It's not that I don't think the economy is affecting things, but I think even more than that is the sheer amount that is out there in varying price ranges new. (also the economy might be affecting new entrants into the hobby, which also affects prices, right now it seems like there is again a much greater supply of dolls than there are people into the hobby.) I remember back in 2005 or 2006 when people kept talking about how these dolls were great because you could always get your money back, arguing that this was only a temporary phase and that things would change, and now they have.

And while there are people who seek older dolls or rare older LEs, I've noticed that there is always a push to have the newest LEs and that in turn also affects values.

As for layaways, I personally am usually willing to take longish ones. All the ones I've ever had as a seller have just gone wonderful and my buyers have been nothing but completely lovely to deal with. I'm only less willing to do them now due to personal circumstances and a concern that I won't be able to keep up my end of the sale. ^^;

 

I agree that pricing is an issue. While hard-to-get LEs on Y!J won't sell at the markups they used to, I was just in bidding wars on two Williams - they both ended out of my price range, around $1500ish USD, which is cheap for that particular sculpt but still a markup over original value. The $3000 SD17 Williamses aren't moving, because the scalpers haven't quite caught up with the times. However, while people won't spend quite as much they certainly WILL buy.

 

I don't think it's just that the economy has slowed, I think that before it was harder to find things and there were less dolls to choose from. Now there are a ton of dolls to choose from. I manage the links thread here on DoA and last year my doll seller links and sellers of clothes and accessories links all fit on the same page post. I now have it spread out between 3-4 posts. There are are a lot more sellers. I think that's what's slowing down sales too.

 

*shrug* I try to not let the wildly vacillating state of the doll "economy" get to me too much. Some days/weeks/months/years sales are red hot and some days they just aren't. And it does depend upon whether you're buying or selling as far as how much it can elate or deflate you. The popularity swings on an-impossible-to-predict scale. The dollshe craze is a perfect example of this - I have bought and sold many a dollshe over the years and there is simply no black-and-white pricing guide. Period. Yes, some dolls do seem to be popular in the MP and it "could" be popularity in the hobby at large or rareness or who knows, the particular alignment of the planets.

I think if a collector is collecting on the hopes of making a steady income off doll sales....that's pretty durned risky a venture. For the most part, I do believe "dream dolls" can come home - it takes work; searching and saving. I have seen inflated pricing and rock-bottom great deals.

Personally, I think general perceived popularity is the name of this game and not the "real world" economy.

 

The state of the economy certainly dictates spending habits and people lose confidence, but I also tend to think there is a glut in the BJD market. Companies seem to be concentrating on bringing out new dolls to keep interests up, and with it comes the impulse spending. Then people sell to buy the next big thing. BJDs are becoming less of a collector piece and more of a fad.

 

I do think the economy is one of the major reasons. If I had a steady job right now, I'd be buying more and selling less... if many people do that, it causes more demand and less supply, two things which obviously inflate prices more. Instead I find myself staring at dolls that are very reasonably priced right now, but my own dolls aren't selling so I can't buy them. LOL.

On a positive note, I have done more trades in the last 6 weeks than in the rest of my time here.

 

It may also be the fact that the majority of BJD collectors have "grown up"... I'd say most people here are in that magical 18-25 range where people are starting/leaving college and moving away from home to be on their own, maybe also getting married and/or having babies. Naturally, this results in much less disposable income. A couple of years ago, we were all in middle/high school where mom and dad paid for everything and now we're having to enter the expensive world of adulthood with less money for "playthings". As a consequence, the resale market of luxury items like BJDs has become a buyer's paradise and a seller's nightmare.

More and more people are opting for cheaper dolls and unless a more expensive second-hand doll is popular or has a special history/reputation, it ain't gonna sell.