The State of the Market

This is such a broad argument as to be pointless. I'm sorry, but with 10,000 members here on DoA, it's important to remember that X amount of us are well outside the 18-25 age range.

 

The EU market is easier now with more dealers around than before, but the MP here is too risky now with the exchange rate for those of us who have to pay huge customs bills and handling charges by the postal services this end as well from the country of origin. I try to buy in Europe now as I can calculate the cost as price of doll plus shipping, no big surprise charges.

We too are suffering with job cuts and government spending cuts and all the things which lead to no money in ones pocket. Dolls which would have got the same price on resale are now going for less than its original cost and frankly its better to just hang on to them.

I no longer buy dolls because I can, I buy them if they have a character and some inspiration for me.
I have one too many sitting around unloved and characterless even though I thought long hard about him. I wish I could sell him but I really think he won't sell at the price I need to get to cover his cost! He came 2nd hand from Canada and the customs and postage were over $300 and the doll was $480 so go figure who will pay that in these times....He is yo sized and not readily available but even so.

I would love to have a Soom that would be my dream but I could buy many cheaper dolls for the price! and more often! Also the MP is flooded with Soom especially the tinies. The other flood is Lati, they are everywhere. That must say something about the current fashions in sculpts/styles? people are dumping these in quantity.

When I started in this hobby last year there were many different kinds of interesting dolls on the MP but now there is a boring quality to it as there so many dolls that are the same.
As for the parts/eyes /wigs etc... you have to have hours to rummage through all the muddled up jumble ...that really needs to be addressed.
This is not helping with sales as folks will not spend time trawling through the debris to find the perfect wig when it could take days to do it!One visit to a good dealer and its done in minutes.

I have been lucky in that I have never been burned on the MP but you always feel as time goes on that the luck is running out! Maybe it will be this time...I think everyone is getting wary and buying direct from the company or reputable dealer, having less money and thinking things through more before they buy. Its got to slow down the economy of the MP I think.

Even in my one year of collecting there have been a huge change in the amount of companies and the quantity of dolls they sell. There must be thousands of dolls out there now! I will never have all the dolls I like because they will be gone and replaced before I get around to it, we can't keep up!

There will always be the lucky few with money to spare (more power to them) but most of us can't and the economy is affecting us and showing up in the little world of DoA. Lets hope it improves as the global economy does and if not then there will be some sort of crisis and the doll hobby may collapse with companies folding and dissapearing.

 

That's a pretty big generalization -- partly because there are plenty of members outside of that age range, and also because through out all age ranges people's financial situations can vary drastically. Also, though age can bring more financial responsibilities, it can also bring a higher amount of income as many adults are working full time jobs and have reached a point where there is more stability. You're also assuming that the majority of teens are just being handed money, which isn't necessarily the case either. Plus, people are leaving and entering the hobby at all ages. The big increase in younger members has really been in more recent years, and the hobby has always been more geared towards adults with the cost factoring into that greatly. I myself entered the hobby at 27 and have purchased all my own dolls and at least 95% of their stuff -- something that would've been much more difficult as a teen.

The idea that hobbies and luxury items end at a certain age just isn't true. There are times in life when one may have to cut back somewhat on spending, but that has a tendency to fluctuate, and with so many members you can't assume that everybody is at the same point in their life cycle and having to cut back for those reasons. For that to happen, most people would've had to join the hobby at around the same time and same age, and be in similar financial situations which is impossible.

 

I keep reading "Its not a sellers market" Does this go for dolls only, Or doll supplies as well? such as 2nd hand eyes, wigs, clothes.
What about all the small business owners that make clothes for these dolls? will they soon be out of business?

 

I'm having a much harder time moving even highly desireable second-hand doll accessories than I did a while ago. Any urethane eyes I put up for sale used to vanish within a day or two, and now they hang around in threads for weeks or months.

Doll stuff is about as non-essential as you can get, and I suspect that for a lot of people involved with BJDs it's one of the first things they drop when money gets tight. I definitely cut back on doll stuff before just about anything else I buy. All I can say for people whose livelihood is dependent on doll stuff is... well, I hope they have either a backup plan or a very nice savings account.

 

I get the impression that things are overall slow. When it comes to seamstresses I don't really know. I expect it will depend -- some will probably be able to compete better than others depending on things like reputation, quality and whether or not they're selling things that a large number of people really need. There are still people buying stuff, it's just that there's lots of stuff competing for a smaller pool of hobby money so there's a lot more competition than there was.

As to going out of business, I'm not sure how many people treat their dolly related businesses as full time jobs. If people are making and selling stuff primarily for enjoyment and to help fund their hobby, the slow sales may hurt, but they aren't necessarily depending on them either so I don't know if going out of business would be wholly accurate -- it's not the sort of business that one would just 'lose' in that way -- there's no reason why it couldn't continue indefinitely, business would just be really slow. But maybe I'm wrong, and there are more people using hobby activities as a major source of income??? Or are you meaning companies who only make doll clothes (like DollHeart or Cheery Doll) rather than individual hobbyists?

Hobby type items are generally undependable when it comes to making money off them since they're non necessary items, popularity fluctuates, prices fluctuate ... it's still unpredictable even at the best of times.

 

Hobby markets seem to be slow across the board. Dolls are, from looking at this thread and watching items in the MP. The one I sell to that isn't connected to dolls absolutely is. The jewelry I sell? Also slow as molasses, because it, like hobby items of all stripes, is a luxury. Too many people are worried about keeping their jobs and keeping the lights on to worry too much about hobbies much of the time.

 

I would be buying more if the exchange rate from GBP/Euro to USD/Yen wasn't as bad (which I suppose is an effect of the bad ecnomy) 3 or five years agao I could afford to spend much more when the exchange rate was better.

 

In a weird way, I kind of want to think the hobby's fadish status is a big factor for why the second hand market is suffering so badly.

What it seems to be is that there are a lot of new comers to the hobby that know that they like the dolls and can't wait to try their hand at being a hobbiest, but don't take the time to research what exactly they're getting into as a hobby. What i mean by this is sometimes they don't realize that the pretty doll on the page is going to be bald, naked and faceless when it comes home, is bigger than expected, or other issues that could've been fixed with a little extra time spent researching the dolls themselves from that company, how their joints work and such, and as a result there are multitudes of "bonding issues" sales threads. There are even cases where they just buy the doll at a bad time financially, and that results in them as well.

There are others that knowingly get their dolls bald, naked and faceless, with the intention of doing it all themselves, whether for the purpose of saving a penny or to be unique, however they don't do the research required on that kind of customization and that's where some of the fixer-uppers or "OOAK dolls" on the market place come from. The problem with this: the owners of these dolls that are purchased and not taken care of or "customized", assume the dolls can be sold for what they paid for at the mint condition price.

There are those two as well as those who break, scratch, ding, and dent their dolls before deciding that they don't want them anymore, and still want somewhere near mint-condition price. Or even better, those that sell naked limiteds for the fullset going price.

All of this combined with the declining economic situation of most hobbyists, the growing risk of buying second hand rather than company (Problem transactions Forum anyone?), make the second hand market somewhat less worth it for the money that you pay and risk losing out on.

I remember what it was like trying to get Soom monthlies during the first and second runs. Everyone was eager for them to hit the second hand market, and when they were there they got snapped up (some posts less than a day). Now, everyone gets them so there's not really a need to wait like that because we anticipate them, so everyone that wants one gets one while they're available from the company rather than pay the 2nd hand (sometimes inflated) price for a doll or head only.

Following that are the influx of new companies that give new options that are sometimes the deciding factor on what brings home dolls that people will never sell outside of dire circumstances, and/or can't really be moved on the marketplace because no one's ever heard of the company or sculpt.

Because people are hurting, they're trying to make every penny back that they put in (ex. I saw a naked Chalco selling for exactly what my fullset split sold for on the site, shipped + shipping ), and aren't buying more, because they need the money, exponentially. As a result, seems like no one's wanting to buy overpriced, stripped, damaged or modded dolls, which seem to be the only things on the marketplace these days. Second hand almost isn't worth it anymore, unless you find that rare gem amongst all the usual stuff and are willing to take the risk.

 

Interesting point, and probably descriptive of a number of dolls residing in the marketplace currently. There are certainly threads around DoA that suggest that there is a group of hobbyists that don't have a good sense of what the abjd hobby is about or what to really expect.

This seems like a bit of an exaggeration, though. It's true that what you describe exists and it does create more ads to weed through. However, I've seen a lot more than that in the marketplace. Of course it also depends on what you're looking for as well as a certain amount of patience and luck, but I've personally found that second hand is still well worth it -- especially with my own money being considerably tighter these past couple years than it was. Perhaps there is a perception that the marketplace is less safe, or not worth while that stops people really looking there? Even if said perceptions are not completely true, beliefs like that can be pretty powerful when it comes to deciding where to plunk down money on a doll.

 

I don't quite know how to put this without sounding odd or harsh, but the vibe I've gotten from more than a few posts now and then, mostly from people who don't have dolls yet, reminds me of this point. That vibe is a general sense that the doll will be like a huge revelation, turning point, solution to problems, or any number of other things that are enormous life or emotional changes that, I have to be honest, are one heck of a lot to tie to such a purchase, and something I wouldn't count on a hunk of resin, no matter how impressive, to kick off/change/improve/etc. People read about bonding and characters and personalities and, perhaps, expect a lot more interaction from the doll than they actually get in the end, and it doesn't serve the purpose they subconsciously want it to serve.

Items like this seem to get sold off after a few months, when someone finally gets the doll and realizes, 'you know, this isn't for me,' because, whether they realize it or not, the subconscious need isn't being satisfied, and the money is required for the next potential miracle cure-all. In times of general crisis -- and at least financially, a lot of people are there right now -- the number of people who have an undercurrent of anxiety or dissatisfaction to contend with is going to spike, and the number of people needing the 'cure' is going to rise as well.

 

It is probly due to the economy downturn and also the wide variety of choices we have now. I believe back then when the hobby started, there weren't as many bjd doll companies as now. I for one, won't pay 2000 dollars for an old limited edition doll in market place when I have the chance to buy an equally beautiful and unique limited edition doll for a fraction of that price lol if I just be patient and wait. I am almost certain something similar will pop up in the future.

 

All hobbies seem to be having a slow-down- although collecting toys is never an assured investment. Right now I can't even afford a new Breyer horse for my other collection much less a new doll or clothes. I'm on unemployment, and despertly searching for a job, but no luck so far.

 

It's always astonishing to me when I hear people wondering why hobby markets are having a rugged time right now. Anywhere from 7-14% of the population, at least in the US, is *unemployed* right now. That means that there is probably another 10% or more who are bopping around with barely-squeaking-by jobs. That's a HUGE decline in the potential market for everything, much less luxury items. Most people prefer to, oh, I don't know, EAT than play dolls...

For the same reason, I continue to find it a source of amazement that people assume that they are going to recoup all their costs when selling a doll in the second hand market. Um, why? Why would you expect someone to pay back your original international shipping costs for an item that isn't coming to them new from overseas? It just isn't logical. Think depreciation. The second it drives off the lot, it's not a new item any more.

I would *love* to recoup the $3-400 each I spent on some of my minis a few years ago, but it's irrational to think that I would. They're 4-5 years old, don't have double joints or others of the bells and whistles and they've all yellowed to some degree. If you're selling one that just got home, for whatever reason, sure, go ahead and ask its retail price but don't expect to recoup your shipping costs too... that's... not going to get it sold . (was going to say something pithier there but I won't).

Oh... and ETA no, generally speaking, concluding anything based on age is not a great choice, with the possible exception of some health-related things. We'll just start with the fact that there are STILL more boomers than any other age group and the youngest of us are just over the 50 mark and a long way out from retirement still. That makes the chances of any hobby group being skewed slightly toward the older end pretty decent. <--- "This is not a scientific study"

 

Truth to this. At the very least, it's gotta a big factor in the sheer glut of dolls in the FS section of the market lately. With all the inexpensive dolls available these days, now anybody who wants one can get one-- but then they can't sell it because everybody else already has one. Only the "salvage" hobbyists are really cleaning up right now! If you're into rescuing cheap damage-cases & fixing them up nice, the marketplace must be heaven right now.

The bar has definitely been raised on the caliber of doll/doll-related item that you CAN expect to recoup what you paid. But, there are always rare beauties who will continue to fetch fair prices even in a squishy market, so people still shouldn't go expecting that they're entitled to $600 for a Williams fullset just because "it's the economy". Depreciation doesn't always happen, or it doesn't always happen as fast as potential buyers would hope for. ^^

High-end luxury items don't always play by the same recession-rules as other markets, though. Those with lots & lots of money are less likely to feel any pinch; those who can afford, will buy. Notice how, say, Tiffany & Co. isn't suffering for business.

 

I don't think dolls go out of style so much as new ones show up and take away some of their popularity. I think majority of the older sculpts are and will continue to be classics, but they certainly face competition. In one current thread, the OP asked about "your first doll versus the first doll you bought" and a lot of people liked one doll only to buy another for a variety of reasons- not the least because Doll X was way cheaper than beloved doll Y. I think that happens far more often.

As for the economy, yeah it's bad, but I think that won't impact a niche hobby like this one as much. While many of us on the inside of this hobby see it as going mainstream, I have to say- it's still a niche. Basically, if you have the money to be in this hobby right now, then your probably going to be okay in it in the future. The recession has already claimed those who couldn't afford this.

The MP itself has shrunk a bit to me actually. I joined two years ago and there were far more FS threads in general then there are now. But I do note that special, rare and limited dolls are abounding much more then when I initially got here, and they're going for much much cheaper prices on the whole. I was even lucky enough to be able to take advantage of this and get a "grail doll" of mine for significantly less than otherwise. I think more than anything, maybe because the economy is bad, people are trying harder to sell off some of their less loved dolls, but it's less about cleaning out collections though, then getting some much needed funds for bills and things.

 

Teruchan, yes exactly what I was thinking. There are not as many FS threads as there used to be. The dolls that I am seeking in the MP are being listed less frequently than they used to be. The Tiny MP thread this time last year was extremely busy and now it's just the same few dolls being bumped and occasionally a new one will pop up. Less crisis/emergency selling. Even when this thread was started last July, the MP was busier. I think it's more a case of popular/desired sculpts not being sold. Are people keeping hold of their dolls because they don't need the money?

Brand new sculpts are selling like hotcakes in the MP to people who missed ordering them directly. I had no trouble selling four MP dolls recently to fund another purchase, all sold same day or within the week.

It's a valid point that this is an expensive, niche hobby and if you're in it now you're probably not going to leave due to lack of funds. Especially considering the economy is recovering.

 

True enough; but by and large what I observe here, in this community anyway, is that a fairly steep percentage of us aren't those folks with lots & lots of money. We (the great amorphous "we" that is a glittering generality and does not apply to everyone equally) tend to love layaway, groan at the appearance of multitudes of beauties all at once because our limited means won't afford them, and basically just don't have Tiffany sorts of funds at hand.

That means that when the economy squeezes us, the first things to go are our hobby splurges.

Just, generally speaking, don't you know. I never claimed to be an economist, but neither do I think we are by and large rich people here. And THAT last, is just my own observation. I may be wrong; have been before and undoubtedly will be again.