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The State of the Market

Jul 5, 2010

    1. It really depends. There was a time where Volks Cecile the Scarface (NS) was one of the most expensive dolls out there with a pricetag of $1500 minimum. Now a price like that isn't even a rarity anymore. Two years ago you could get a Volks Michele for $8-900. Now, try to find one below $1300.
      The tag 'limited' will not automatically make a doll expensive anymore, but I do notice more dolls being sold for enormous prices.
       
    2. Unless people are being explicit about their salaries, you probably have no idea how many rich people you're talking to in any given thread. :lol: In this climate of cheapness and economization, people who DO have comfortable finances seem really quiet-- I never hear them trumpet it. My guess is they dislike being instantly labelled as snobby or Scarlet E just because they have money. But people who scrimp-and-layaway are very vocal about it, so that's all you can hear. And, if the company you commonly keep is heavy on the layaways-and-scrimping demographic, then of course you would draw the conclusion that rich people are a minority in the entire hobby. (Sort of like the way some people assume that since a vocal population of doll-owners are anime freaks, everybody must all be anime freaks.) But I wouldn't even try to assume anything about the economic situations of the members of an enormous forum that's devoted to luxury items!

      Anyway-- folks who aren't feeling the Recession Pinch so much, they are why you can still see mad resale prices for that Haute Hound or Bermann or Scarface Cecile fullset, and why such dolls' prices won't drop too far no matter how squishy the market.
       
    3. I'm speaking from the viewpoint of watching the Marketplace very closely, not from anyone's statement about how much he/she makes. (I generally don't read the "discussions" here - unless I see a post from you in one! ;) ). And I see a whooooollle lot of "selling everything because I have bills to pay" or "the car just died" or similar things. That lends the impression that by and large, the people making use of this Marketplace are not ultra-high-enders. Some of us may be better off than others, but this is why I was VERY careful to label my opinion as just-an-observation and as a "glittering generality." We know that generalities are just that. General, and not necessarily very accurate.

      And yes, we've had this conversation before. I obviously am NOT talking about the "Haute Hound or Bermann or Scarface Cecile fullset" dolls whose owners ought to bear in mind the state of the economy a bit (come on now, you know me better than that). It's the common-garden-variety girls and boys that are freely available that, face it, ought NOT to fetch brandy-new prices when they're being resold because they simply don't have the lasting power of a "legendary" doll of some variety or other.
       
    4. Totally OT, but because of the "Haute" in front, in my head he becomes "'ound". :sweat

      I think the size of the hobby also amplifies things. I'd imagine there were always folks who had to sell off for financial reasons, but now there are just plain more people period. That ups the chances of more people in the marketplace selling for whatever reason. Plus more companies selling more stuff across the board means people may need to sell to fund new purchases, but others may be just as content to go directly to companies to get what they need.

      Absolutely I'd say the world economy is having an effect, but the marketplace was pretty big when I first joined, too. And that was pre-Wall Street meltdown. Also, not all countries were as devastated by that situation. My own country's economy stayed relatively stable.
       
    5. I'll go for option A and D.
      I've only joined this hobby for around 6months and I do see things like reselling going around.
      Option A might not only apply to bad economy ,however I do agree that the current economy state as it is right now does contribute to it.Popular models especially LE,people tend to stock up and keeping it for value up.
      LE states it has a limited quantity around the Earth so once it's off means the value will automatically rise by itself too.
      I hate this somehow but I do thank these people for their existence >_>,hate in such a way that,hey you don't like him so just get your hands off and stop snatching the stock with the rest who actually really wants him.However ,they are around to sell off these models to those who didn't manage to get this particular model ): I have to admit I'm one of them who went around purchasing from these sellers.Like recently,I saw an auction going on at Taobao,selling this company's head-_-...
      but it's off limited quantity so not everyone gets it.The official website states it's 160 bucks yet in the end of the auction,the price went up by around 4 and half times more than the original price.

      This is another way of investment,which maybe kind of risky too ~.~ Who can really predict that oh Company A comes out with this A doll and said it's limited but then few days later they come out with another SIMILAR but BETTER doll ?

      As for Option D, I personally contribute myself to this option :).
      Seriously,I used to think that as long as the sculpt is nice then I'm fine with it^0^. For example,I don't get why Volks price is so much higher than most of the dolls companies around?I'm not a huge fan of Volks either.Until recently when I got to know about SDGr Okita,which reminds me of this favourite character of mine from this game I've played way earlier than I entered this hobby,then I actually managed to receive this Volks doll as my X'mas present. I played around with him when he arrives then I realised the different between him and my other babies.Technical based,it's much higher than what I really am expecting.This is just my point of view.So as a consumer myself,I rather spent this xxx sum on this doll which is already well made,even though there might be newer version in the future?but as for current,with what are around,I rather spend that much on this doll which serves the best ,either the face ,the body build ,or the protection against UV and so on than on another doll which is not well prepared.So I do agree that point D, makes sense :) but good stuffs are always limited-.- Once again, I hate to say but I does thinks that if I'm the boss I'll do the same thing too,so that it won't be so common ~.~ thus retaining its' value.However,it's once again,linked back to second hand sellers *grumbles*

      As for the passion wise...It may or may not be,I think this is much of a personal thing..Yet I foresee myself throwing in more money into this hobby ( '_') I just got addicted and stepped in deeper and deeper.It's just like branded goods.You do see people in different countries or cities goes spending their time queuing to enter the shop and then,spending that much on let's say,a hand bag-_-'' It does makes sense to me,its's just that we aren't purchasing any branded handbags but we are spending as much as spending on a hand bag on a doll.
       
    6. I don't necessarily agree -- yes it is certainly a niche hobby, and a luxury one at that. However, there are likely many people (though not all, of course) here who probably got into the hobby with fairly average earnings who could very well be feeling the pinch right now. Also, money troubles does not mean that someone will leave the hobby -- it does mean that they will not have the disposable income to do as much buying (I speak from personal experience here). Remember that there is more to the hobby than simply acquiring more dolls. How much extra income a person has to put into a hobby like this can really fluctuate depending on big issues like job loss/underemployment but also more day to day stuff like sudden medical or vet expenses, needing to make payments on something like a car or other loan, or the need to save money back for other needed large purchases. The idea that if you had the money to get into the hobby, you'll continue to have the money to purchase at the same rate doesn't necessarily jive with the reality of day to day living for all hobbyists. Obviously this is a big varied group of people, and not everybody is having financial woes, but the economy is something that has been impacting quite a few people and it stands to reason that some of those people are going to be fellow hobbyists.

      This is how I see things too -- the really highly sought after dolls will still be highly sought after. Of all the people who want them, some still have to have the cash on hand ;) Plus, if something is really hard to find and the opportunity arises, someone might be more willing to bite where they might hesitate on a sculpt that they could easily buy later. However, considering that the really rare dolls are really rare, a lot of the typical buying and selling is going to center around dolls that are more common. I think that's where you really see the impact of the economy.

      I find this interesting, and something I hadn't thought of. I'm still adding, or I would be if I had the cash, lol, but my wish list has really shrunk. The more I've been living with the doll population where it is now, the less I want to add many more to it. I guess the question is, are the new people coming in at a rate that balances out the people who's numbers are stabilizing?
       
    7. A lot of interesting points were made and I've thoroughly enjoyed this topic. :3

      I haven't been in the doll hobby all that long but I've monitored the MP since I've gained access on an almost weekly basis. I can attest that it has certainly changed from when I first joined. It is my impression that the MP is saturated with dolls with possibly too few people capable of purchasing them. Which has caused a downturn in asking prices, for the most part.

      Although I do find some exceptions to this theory. Even in a down turned economy, someone, somewhere is still making money. For instance, Dollar General has made huge profits in the last few years where as luxury brands have taken hits. I bought a Volks YOSD Sara for $550 in 2008, I bought a Volks YOSD Megu for $800 in 2011. Theoretically the price should have gone down but it hasn't. Not all goods follow this trend. Dolls that are fairly old and will not be produced ever again (SwD Mimi for instance) will keep their value better and even earn value over time. But the attitude of the market has changed, people no longer are interested in what they were five years ago.

      Something I do find somewhat difficult are people trying to sell dolls for what they once cost. I'm sure to recoup the original cost. For instance, Unoas once were extremely difficult to obtain and were often scalped or had deputy's fees attached to them. They've always been much higher on the MP than their original value. I'm still seeing Unoas being listed for $800+ but the ones who do sell tend to be in the $650 range. Many dolls that once sold within hours of being listed will sit for months even at a reasonable price.
       
    8. I second this. I think the admittedly high cost of these items has lead some people to think of them as an "investment", making the gross assumption that all dolls not only hold their value, but many increase in value. With very few exceptions that doesn't seem to be the case. I don't think it's a sound policy to think of ANY hobby as an investment. We'd all love to think that we've got an old baseball card or Barbie or somesuch in the attic that's worth thousands of dollars, but when you weigh that against the thousands and thousands of other baseball cards or Barbies that are worth a dime if that...you're playing awfully long odds counting on money from these things.

      There will always be Grail Dolls that someone out there wants like burning and is willing to cut out their kidney to buy, but that's far from the majority, and in this comparatively new hobby, we're finding that our beloved dolls do not always age as well as we'd like. They can yellow (or green >_< ). Faceups fade or are rubbed away. Certain joints or areas of thin resin could even potentially crack and break, and replacement parts aren't always forthcoming. This makes it even less likely that an older doll, no matter how awesomely desirable it was at the time, is going to be worth twice retail today.

      As to the economy, I think that luxury hobbies are certainly the first thing to get cut back in someone's budget, but I don't know that listing "car repair" or "doctor's bill" on a marketplace thread is necessarily a solid indicator of a person's financial situation. Call me cynical, but I think most people, when selling a doll, want to have a reason that sounds a little noble and a little hardship; it sounds better than "I've had this doll for a year and now I saw a new one and I only have money/space/time for X number of dolls in my collection". Honestly, I wouldn't think any differently of a seller if the latter reason were stated--I'm not even sure why people bother stating reasons for selling. Ultimately it doesn't matter why you're selling it; from a buyer's perspective the important elements are only whether what you're selling is what they want and if your asking price is what they're willing to pay. I think buyers are just getting a little more stringent on that last half of it.

      One other thought I had, and this could be massively off-base, is that we're also seeing aging of collectors and changing of priorities. I know when I went from renting to buying a house, I found myself looking at dolls in the marketplace and thinking "it's beautiful, but...that's a dishwasher/stove/mortgage payment". There's a quite wide spread of ages represented in our hobby (which is part of what makes it awesome, I think), but it's always felt like there were a number of young adults that really got head over heels into it initially, and that makes me wonder if that demographic is starting to acquire things like a mortgage and children that change financial priorities.
       
    9. Everyone has made some good points so far, but I'll add my two cents for the heck of it ^_^. For me, lack of doll sales is all about the economy. I just don't have the money to get all the dolls that I would like, so I have to save up a lot and be very selective about the dolls I want to order (even now, I only have one and getting a second one this year is only a maybe). Otherwise, I might have a lot of new dolls from the marketplace.
      There's also definitely a level of paranoia associated with the marketplace. I've heard so many stories about scams and stolen dolls that it makes me very nervous. I've been really lucky so far, but who knows when that'll end.
       
    10. I know my collecting has been affected by a few issues:

      1. The economy:
      I'm a little wary because of the economy. Australia hasn't been affected too much so far, but we are seeing signs of shops closing etc. My money (and my hubby's) is now getting redirected into projects like repainting the house and doing up the yard rather than on our hobbies. It's also timing as well, the kids are older and less destructive so we can afford to renovate without worrying that the walls will be covered in crayon. I guess I don't see dolls as having a set value whereas a house does so renovating the house and yard is improving and adding value to an asset and helping to safeguard our financial position.

      2. How big do you want your collection to be?
      My collection currently stands at roughly 30 dolls and I'm struggling to find places to put them all. I'm getting my hubby to build a special bookcase with seating for them, but realistically, there are limits to how many dolls I want to own. Knowing that dolls aren't reselling as easily or frequently as well, I tend to think about what I'm buying a little more.

      3. Same thing, slightly different look?
      I tend to think that all hobbies 'age'. At one stage Tonners had a run on the market, they were releasing more and more dolls, people wanted to collect all the different outfits, then they upgraded the bodies and everyone had to have the more articulated dolls, then people looked at their collections and decided that they had 15 Sydneys with bendable arms and legs in all different hair and eye colours and didn't need any more. The same thing is happening with my BJD collection. I've got muscular guys, slender guys, curvy gals, ultra busty gals, MSDs, Yo-SDs. I've gone for realistic faces then ultra realistic faces. I look at so many of the new releases and think that I've already got something similar at home. Now I want something different. I'm seeing a few different body shapes ie pear shaped appearing as BJD companies try to offer something that their customers don't have. But it is only a matter of time before everyone has pear shaped etc. I'll probably collect a few of those, but think my interest in unusual shapes will bottom out as well. I've been through the Soom fantasy stage as lost interest in that. Sooner or later things get old and people move on.

      I do believe that BJD companies realise this and if any hobby is likely to find the next new thing, it will be them. The problem is that the basic, standard less unusual dolls become part of the white noise of dolls flooding the market and thus harder to sell. Sure some limiteds will always command high prices. There are always people who 'must have' a certain doll and you only need two of those people or even one to get a good price for your doll. The reality is that the dolls without distinction have dropped in price and people who put on their auctions "I'd like to get back what I paid aren't likely to" unless the company has a particularly long waiting period.