I started typing this out in the "scalping and you" thread, then realized how relevantly off topic I was getting and thought it might be worth a separate post. I am offering the question of when the BJD market will bottom out, and what will happen when it does. (Not really bottom out, that's the wrong term... perhaps what I mean is 'level out') There will eventually be a point where the pace of new BJD companies outstrips the growth of the fandom. Everyone seems to want a piece of the BJD action right now, even quite a few companies who don't quite 'get it' and think that sticking anime eyes on their regular dolls will produce a BJD sensation. People who will argue that this won't happen, that the doll fandom will continue to grow indefinately- I saw it happen when I posted a thread back on 2002 on cosplay.com (I believe) asking when the amount of cosplay would level out. I got quite a few "COSPLAY WILL NEVER STOP GROWING!" angry replies. Of all the replies along those lines I got, maybe 1/5th of those people are still actively cosplay. And I've deffinately noticed the ratio of cosplayers: street clothes at conventions going in favor of street clothes slowly but surely. I think we are approaching market saturation even now- I've seen a couple of CP art dolls that have just sat on the marketplace, as no one was willing to pay what the scalpers wanted for them, even when they attempted to split them up and sell them off piecemeal. People may say all the dolls retain their value, but I've been watching threads for DOC old bodies- and people are *lucky* to get full resell value on an old DOC body even now. (From what I've seen recently in the marketplace, that is. It has and always will fluxuate somewhat.) There were at least three sitting around recently at or below company price, and they just weren't moving. I'm afraid I just can't see every doll maintaining their market value into the future when we are already seeing people having trouble maintining the market value on certain dolls they have now. When there get to be more standards for sale than there are people to buy them, their prices will necessarily have to go down in order to get them to sell at all. I'm also wondering when/if this will affect the companies directly- when it gets cheaper to buy a second hand because people selling them below cost just to get them to move, why pay the company full price? [This is how it relates to the other thread] When the market levels out, I do think we will see a drop in scalping. Some dolls will always retain their value, I think- I can't see Cecil the Scarface or Sasha dropping in price anytime soon. But eventually there will just be so many dolls available that people are going to say "Huh. I like that limited, but there are so many non-limiteds on the market I also like, I might as well not bother with that price." It would seem natural that it would go the other way around as more people want a fixed number of dolls, but that doesn't jive with the general trends I've been noticing... Which is that, the general trend as far as new people coming to the hobby is towards the cheaper dolls. Or, rather, I should justify that with that I've seen a population explosion of doll heads from more expensive companies on Angel of Dream bodies. I am NOT saying this is bad; I'm just noticing that at least in my local fandom, they are multiplying like bunnies. [I have Dollzones, so no moral judgement from me there!] TLR version 1) When do you think the BJD market will level out? 2) Have we already seen some levelling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value? 3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards? And one more question not asked in the longer diatribe: 4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?