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When the market levels out [Doll values in future years], BJD market saturation

Aug 29, 2007

    1. Well, I only made a C in Micro Economics, and heve yet to take macro, so I won't even venture my poorly informed opinion on the first few questions. I only want to adress the last one. I hope that one day, with improved technology by companies who joined late in the game, that the cost of producing dolls will go down and company prices will change to reflect that. (I dream of a day when a Megu will cost $450 straight from volks.) This is the most important part of economics that I remember: when a market expands it can have innovations, but it has to expand first. Case in point would be Angell Studios saying they had a new mold making tecnique that can make two dolls at once.

      Also, everyone seems so afraid of the cheap companies taking over, but the chinese companies seem to have stylistic similarities and do not reflect the full variations of style through out the market. What I mean is, I love Limwha Half-Elf, but find her price 'prohibitive'. There is no cheap company with a face to match her, none even similar. As for limiteds, I crave a Supia60, and even Roda's face is too different to suffice. I would get her scalped this year, next year, and every year after it.
       
    2. 1) When do you think the BJD market will level out?
      Already happened - sooner or later everything does level out.
      2) Have we already seen some levelling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value?
      Definitely, plus I think people are less willing to pay full value because of quite a few instances where people have modified their dolls then 'forgot' to mention the changes or where slight damage such as chips, scratches etc have been notice and the seller has failed to mention or do anything about it etc. Most people are willing to wait a bit longer for their dolls and in most instances, companies have come to accept that most people want a 1 month wait rather than 3-5 so shorter wait times encourage people to buy direct.

      3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards?
      I think higher interest rates, mortgages and rents will affect the hobby more than anything. The less spare dollars, the less dolls bought. Also the popularity of companies will affect prices as well. Companies that want to create interest offer kits at special prices or create unusual dolls and looks. Plus people may prefer to buy cheaper dolls rather than more expensive ones. I notice that the prices of clothing is dropping, people are getting less for the items they make which will also affect the number of people buying as a hobby for profit.

      4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?
      I think people will get more fussy with the secondhand market and really ask questions about the dolls they're buying plus want detailed photos. I also think that people who buy thinking they can easily resell for the same money will get a shock and have to look very carefully at the dolls they buy. When you can't easily resell a doll, people will look more carefully at the doll they buy in the first place and the companies that sell them. Companies that provide less than stellar service will (and already are) get a bad reputation. But at the end of the day, there will always be buyers. Tonner has lost popularity but there are still die-hard fans just as I am sure there will be die-hard BJD fans.
       
    3. this is interesting- I do believe that it is starting to level out but I also don't think there will be a drop in cost from the major players. Speaking as someone who owns a Volks, CP and mid range dolls, like souldoll, cherish doll and a low range doll, Angel of Dream, I can say that there is a difference in quality between them and anyone seriously into the hobby will not settle for less quality, they will know the difference and still yearn after some of the more expensive dolls- I know I want more Volks dolls and I hate that I can't afford the sweet dream nono that has just been released. Don't get me wrong my Angel of Dream Chen is beautiful ,smooth, seam lines taken away and a face up for the low price. Whilst there are companies like this, larger ones might suffer a little. I wonder if it will force them, not to lower their price as such but to include sanding and face ups as standard not as extras.

      Will it stop scalpers?- no, they will always be around as long as people buy from them.
       
    4. Rather than repeat most of what everyone else has already said, I'll add my viewpoint as an incurable Marketplace prowler. :)

      Last year at this time it was a bad idea to wait if you spied a doll or a part that appealed to you. It *would* be gone. Now I'm seeing dolls - really lovely ones - sit for weeks or even months, in some cases. I really believe it's the huge proliferation of new companies, talented artists, and inexpensive options we've seen that is creating this situation.

      For me, this is a good thing. I love buying pieces and parts and pre-loved dolls and putzing around with them until I've made them mine. It's NICE to be able to buy an inexpensive doll and know that if you mess up on the faceup, or have an oops with an exacto knife, you haven't just tossed a month's mortgage down the drain.

      I don't think this rate of expansion can continue much longer, though. Even the lower-cost dolls cost a lot for people on student incomes (or outgoes, as is more likely the case) and even those of us with more disposable income can't buy *all* of the dolls. *weep* Some really lovely molds are languishing.

      Like the dot-com explosion, this too shall level itself off and shake itself out. I feel it will be sooner rather than later. But I've been wrong before.
       
    5. Regarding quality: Just because some people will not settle for lesser quality does not mean that those people contribute enough to necessarily fund an entire company, however. There are companies who have made very high-quality products, but didn't have enough customers to maintain themselves. If a bulk of the market still gravitates toward lower-cost dolls, they may not be able to survive.
       
    6. This is true, but in the case of say Volks, it's important not to disregard the Japanese market. I've been to Japanese events and talked to Japanese owners and while some of the Korean brands are owned (and a brands popularity in Japan does not correspond with its popularity here) most still heavily favor Volks. It's also important to note that while Volks sort of started the modern ABJD market, even before said market they had a thriving business in models and kits (and 1/6) which is still around. I don't think Volks is likely to lower its prices or quality, because they really have a much bigger market than just the English speakers. I'm not sure a lot of the lower price dolls have really made as much of an impact in Japan or Korea.
       
    7. 1) When do you think the BJD market will level out?

      I have no idea what the current or potential percent of ownership is for BJD's.

      2) Have we already seen some levelling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value?

      I think some molds depreciate because they have been replaced with something more attractive or more compatible. DOC's are immature minis. Now that many mature minis are available many people prefer mature minis. The reason you see many old immature mini bodies for sale is because people decide they want a mature body for their existing doll. One other thing about some DOC's is that the DOC pairs (like Too and Bee-A) were the original less-expensive mini because the pair was a big savings, so there is a large supply around.

      Another type of body that can be hard to sell is an old skin tone body. Many companies have changed their normal skin tone, so the old bodies are a different shade that matches few if any current heads.

      3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards?

      I imagine that at some point, if no new people come into the hobby (or at least no new collectors with big bucks), maybe some scalped prices will have to come down. As far of the price of standards, most resale values could go to less than retail. But it's still supply and demand. If a popular company stops making dolls or starts making them less often, you could get escalating scalped prices. And maybe it will end up like the Barbie market with heavy saturation but very inflated prices on resales of popular limiteds only.

      4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?

      I imagine some companies some would disappear. On the second part of your question - I don't know.

      Carolyn
       
    8. I think it is leveling out and a lot of dolls that once were unattainable are now easier to get second hand. good thing for me. I also think the popularity of other dolls will make them keep their scalping prices. i.e. berman
       
    9. My latter comment was more generic than specific, intended to address earlier remarks.
       
    10. Yes, but keep in mind; the Super Dollfie product line is only -one- of Volks' many products. They have garage kits, regular 1/6th Dollfie, doll clothing lines for all sizes (La Personal, Who's That Girl, etc), Customize figures, and their own line of hobby tools.
      So, to compare Volks to ABJD-only companies is not much of fair balance. If, say, the market for dolls bottomed-out and no-one bought them anymore, Volks would still be doing fine, whereas doll-only companies (Dream of Doll, Souldoll, etc) would go bankrupt.
      Volks technically can afford to lower their doll prices if the market called for it, without taking as much of a fall as doll-only companies.
       
    11. I doubt many companies will go out of business or disappear in the near future. It seems to me that a lot of the smaller BJD companies are sort of a side project for people who do other things as well (and so if they don't make a full living from the dolls it's not as much of a disaster), and the bigger companies seem to have enough fans that even if the market decreases they will still have their fanbase. Volks is somewhat unique in that it fits both categories- Volks has a huge range of products outside of the Super Dollfies- the resin figure kits and 1/6 dolls can probably support the business if SDs tank a bit, though I imagine they might close down some of their Showroom/Tenshi no Sumika shops if interest really deflates. But at the same time they are sort of... THE Ball Jointed Doll company, and as has been mentioned they are incredibly popular in Japan, where the BJD hobby is somewhat different and other brands aren't as popular as they are overseas.

      I do think the BJD hobby will eventually fade. Few things can really last forever, and eventually interest will fade. I can't imagine that 10 or 20 years from now people will still be wanting to pay thousands of dollars for limited doll x. There will be some die hard collectors of course, but I do think a lot of people will get bored of BJDs. ^^; I doubt dolls will get much lower than the price of a "standard" of their type... but I don't think the super inflated $4000 dolls and such will retain that kind of value outside of the next couple of years.
       
    12. I don't know about people not wanting to pay big bucks for dolls 10 years down the road--while I don't think the bjd hobby will continue to grow at a high rate like it is now, there's no reason to think that the things that draw people to these dolls now, won't continue to draw the interest of collectors and hobbyists, especially as these dolls have become increasingly more accessable.

      What the real question is, I think, not whether or not people will still be interested in bjds, or be willing to put big bucks into dolls, but rather what dolls will be popular and bring in the big bucks down the road. Things fade in and out of popularity. A sought after sculpt now may not garner the same interest 15 yrs from now, while a less sought after sculpt does. It's impossible to say what sculpts people will be clamoring for in the future.
       
    13. To me it feels like the market is plummeting! I know it's not as dramatic as that, but the changes recently have really struck me.

      It is now possible to buy dolls half the price of the older companies (Volks, CP, Custom House, Souldoll, Happydoll, Serendipity, DoD, etc.) That scares me.

      In the end, I have nearly $3000 of doll sitting behind me right now and if they don't have any value it won't be the end of the world for me, but if I had to sell them off for a tiny amount of money I would not like it. I already sell dolls cheaply by principle. I take advantage of the high resale value of these dolls, where you can get most of your money back. I like being able to change my mind.

      If the market really falls, I'm going to have to 'settle down' with dolls I keep forever. Eek.
       
    14. I have been collecting dolls for at least 10 yrs now not related to bjd. I have tried to sale dolls that I bought yrs ago and it wont sale for retail price. Eg. I paid $300.00 plus and now when I put on ebay I have to start around $40.00 and still some people wont bid.

      timeline
      1980s porcelain doll, antique, ashton drake, osmand etc etc
      1990s vinyl, gunzel, treffeisen, dey, himstedt, heath
      2000s baby, berenguer, silicone, silicone vinyl, reborn, ooak

      I do see bjd going down in the future but I guess it depends on which co. and which mold is popular then you still may sale at retail value if you are lucky. There is always something better that will come out and the older bjd will sale less.

      Overall bjd is for lovers, collectors, and hobbyist. It is not a thing that you buy to make money or profit in the future.
       
    15. 1) When do you think the BJD market will level out?

      I have seen it happening some, maybe its the economy? maybe not.
      There are an awful lot of ABJD makers now, so there is some market saturation.

      2) Have we already seen some levelling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value?

      Yes, off the top of my head I think of volks oldskin bodies, the many companies offering new jointing systems, Souldolls old french resin without UV protect.

      You could say its like cars, the rare ones are worth something but most cars sell for the most during their model year, the next year a new improved model comes out, or a hot trendy new one and the older car starts to lose value. That and a used car is not as valuable as when new, same goes for most dolls with the exception of some scarce, but popular limiteds

      3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards

      It will probably go down, if people don't have the money or don't want to buy it, it wont sell.
       
    16. This is a very interesting point. I'll even admit to taking an active part in the "cheaper hybrid doll" phenomenon. I already have two hybrids and an inexpensive body for another floating head on order (two CP/FantasyDoll hybrids and one DIM/Old CH hybrid). I can definitely see that trend eventually taking a toll on the companies with higher-priced full dolls as more of us make the option to create "budget" hybrids. However, there will always be people who prefer trusted name-brands.

      I have also noticed that new companies seem to be popping up more and more often, and the existing companies are releasing more and more sculpts. Eventually, as an owner, I intend to eventually reach a point where I just have enough dolls and won't buy anymore unless a particular sculpt just screams "You have to buy me!" I don't really let my dolls sit on the shelf, so when I get so many I don't play with them all, that'll be enough. I'm assuming there are other doll owners out there who will reach their saturation points as well. There will likely be new people getting into the hobby as time goes on, but I doubt the growth of new hobbyists will keep up with new companies and new releases.

      Also, the re-invention of bodies does push the market value of older bodies down. More people want double-jointed elbows now, as they've started to become more standard. That means the resale value of non-double-jointed bodies will go down.

      Anyway... it's a bit rambling, but those are my two cents.
       
    17. 1) When do you think the BJD market will level out?
      I think that is already happening. When I started collecting BJD's they were only available on a limited basis, now the supply is exceeding the demand.

      2) Have we already seen some levelling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value?
      Yes, I thik people have learned that they don't have to pay high $$ amounts for a specific doll. If they wait long enough they will probably get the doll of their dreams at a fair price or find something else they love at an affordable price.
      3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? There will always be limited productions and older unavailable dolls and that means there will always be scalpers. They may not command some of the high prices that they do now, but no hobby that involves collecting is ever scalper free.
      4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?
      The demand for second hand standard dolls has already slowed down. You can buy a new on from many of the companies and get free shipping or buy from a doll store online and get 6 months lay away.
      I have been a doll collector for many years and have gone through several different types/sizes of dolls. I have seen some doll lines prosper and enjoy a long long lifetime and others go up in a puff of smoke after several years. With that said....buy what you love...at a price you can afford and know that you may never get even close to what you paid for the doll some day in the future. Most of all...enjoy your collection...that is really what it's all about
       
    18. I don't think the BJD market will just level out, I think it will shrink back to an earlier level. A lot of the people who are in it now will fall out, and not be replaced. Timewise, I'm not so good at estimating, but if I had to I'd say it will have done so by 3 to 5 years from now.
      Once that happens, absolutely certain dolls are going to be lower. You already see this a lot with some of the more common molds. Old DOCs don't go well, for instance. Limiteds' prices will drop as well -- maybe not to original retail prices, but some of the four-figure dolls may drop by half or even more.
      At that point, the people remaining in the fandom will largely be the die-hards. Or, to put it another way, the community will look a lot more like it did a few years ago when it was highly encouraged to save for your Dream Doll rather than get a cheaper "starter" doll. Because of that, I think a lot of the younger and less expensive companies who cater to that latter market will go under. The second-hand market will provide a lot of those "starter" dolls instead.
       
    19. I don't have a crystal ball, but I do know about some things coming up in the future because I've seen previews.

      I think all dolls evolve, because they are art. Art is imagination, so it cannot remain the same. Artists crave their own visions.

      And I know there are exciting, innovative dolls just around the corner that will capture your imagination.

      They will still be Asian-styled BJD, but they will be a next generation.

      So I'm excited about the future.
      Catrina
       
    20. I think market has started to level out simply cause some companies have dropped their prices some and the younger collectors don't want to go out and spend the money on a limited doll when they can wait a couple of months for a standard edition. I think the hobby is becoming a bit young vs old collector. Companies want to appeal to the young collectors (for example many many male head molds have a "yaoi" look, you don't see "older" masculine face sculpts as much, because right now the "yaoi" market is huge), and I think they are forgetting about the older collectors that put them where they are today. Part of the reason why the vampire head molds are being seen more and more is that is what is big in the romance novel industry and mangas there are more and more series centered around vampires. So it's shifting and might branch out to others, but will it ever hit this level again? I don't think it will.

      I found out about the hobby in 2005 and believe me there was not a HUGE choice like there is now. When I wandered away for awhile and then came back earlier this year....in two short years the number of companies grew by nearly 5 times and there are still new companies popping up. And 2005 was when it started gaining steam outside of Asia where companies had english sites. I remember the first time I started seeing "tan" dolls, was HUGE as those were sold out very fast. Now it's almost a "standard" option for many molds so the "tan" doll market is leveling out definatly.

      But all of this is expected. Many things have to level out eventually and that's not a bad thing, just means we got to get used to second hand market dolls not selling as fast as they once did, and with that the prices start to drop except for the rare molds (pieces that were limited to maybe 30-100 worldwide). A good thing with the market leveling is the companies might start expanding accessories and branching into more styles (rather than the "emo" or GL or just over all dark color scheme we are stuck in now). That could always bring more people into the hobby.

      As far as the second hand market overwhelming the first hand market, I don't think it will reach that point. I know if I had a choice over a first or second, I'd get the first and there are many like that. There are others that prefer second. If the second market ever got to be a "threat" to the first market, I think there would be more limited production and limited production means the market would improve slightly for those new molds.