When the market levels out [Doll values in future years], BJD market saturation

There are so many dolls now! It is really very exciting compared to way back when there was only Volks, CH and Luts who only had a few models each.
I think prices are leveling, limiteds and OOAKs will still hold value.
I agree with Cartrina, I think we are evolving.
Personally I am interested in and want more pose-able bodies and optional features.

 

I agree with Lolly.

Only buying Limited Collection dolls, so when I have to sell (I die or need the money) at least they are only one of 30 or one of a kind and hopefully I can get their full value back.

Great discussion, I have really enjoyed reading the comments.

Mary-Lee

 

What I fear is a mega coporation buying out the high-end doll artists & makers, then having the dolls mass-produced, like limited edition of 10,000, & manufactured in China. Then, a year or so later, thousands of dolls are recalled due to lead paint, pestisides, etc. It would be doll-hell.

Hope this never, ever happens to this community.

 

1) as alot of people said before me I think the next 5-10 years, but there will always be a core group of people who will never give up their dolls. I plan to be one of those but we still collect my little pony and gi joe so... :shrugs:

2) I think we have with luts and volks because people are more interested in the new things.
3)not sure how to answer this one.
4) yes it can... newer companies like bobobie and fdoll could probably overwhelm the larger market with enough sculpts and options if they stay at their current prices. they might also overwhelm the collector by their read availability and start their own levelling out.

 

I've been through the "boom/bust" cycle with a number of hobbies (comic books, action figures, Barbies, Beanie Babies), and while the hobby never goes away, it does settle down to some kind of sustainable level.

It takes two things to break the cycle of rapidly rising prices: a glut of product on the market and a relaxing of the rise of interest (not that interest has to fall, it just has to stop rising quite as fast). And both of these things are happening big time in the BJD market right now.

I think there is going to be some fallout because while BJDs are THE hot thing in doll collecting right now, they won't be forever. There will be the next new thing, and people will move on. Not everyone, and not exclusively, but enough that the huge proliferation of companies and models won't have enough support - and things will consolidate and balance with the collectors that are left.

No, I don't think every doll is going to retain its value. Rarer dolls by better known companies will probably fare better than readily available standards. As I've said many times, collectables are not investments. You buy them because you like them. If they're worth something someday, so much the better, but it's an added bonus, not a guarantee.

Marcia.

 

I really couldn't care less what happens to the market. I buy the dolls for my own enjoyment. If I wanted investments I would buy more bonds.

 

1) When do you think the BJD market will level out?
I don't believe it will ever truly level off. Companies like volks wont drop their prices. They were the orignal creators and thus people will always want their moulds no matter what the price. The cheaper chinese companies might force some of the korean companies to drop in price but what it really comes down to is if you like the mould or not. No matter how cheap a doll is, no one's going to buy it unless it's pretty. Unless they want to practice face ups or modding.

2) Have we already seen some levelling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value?
Not so much. I've noticed that most dolls, heads, bodies go for their orignal prices that the owner paid for them unless they're damaged or modded.

3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards?
Quite the contrary, actually. Most LE heads simply slowly rise in value because fewer and fewer are on the market. Take my Woosoo for example. We know there's only 150 open eye heads and 150 closed eye heads in the world. That's a grand total of 300 which DO pop up on the marketplace quite often. Now the price for this head a few years ago was not 800-900 dollars a head. But it's the simple application of supply and demand. 300 woosoo in the world, a fraction of them in the market, and hundreds if not thousands of collectors lusting after one.. that makes for an extremely high market value.

4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?
I don't think the market will level out enough to effect the fanbase, if anything it'll attract more people due to the cheaper doll alternatives available on the market and as long as there's people buying their dolls, the companies will stay solid.
The second hand market has nothing to do with firsthand. I'm sure most people would rather buy dolls from the companies to insure there's no discolouration, knicks, damage and the whatnot from the handling of the doll over the old owners care. Also, companies are always coming out with new things, new skin tones, new joints, BETTER double joints (aka cp type 3 body which is awesome and I love), etc. So as long as the companies keep coming out with new moulds and new ideas, there's no way the secondhand market can ever overtake buying straight from a company.

 

I believe it will be more a matter of economics than people changing hobbies.

The doll market seems to follow the world economy to some extent, since dolls are luxury items. For example, in the US, when gas goes up, spending in other places goes down, so the doll market is hit a little as are many other markets. If gas prices stay high long enough, the doll market will take a bigger hit as time goes on. When there's less money changing hands in a consumer economy the luxury market is one of the hardest hit. When will this happen? Will this happen? Only time will tell.

 

Anyone who buys dolls, with the intention of investing to send the kids to college, is delusional. If you are buying a doll for any reason other than you love her/him madly, you are making a mistake. The internet has given us access to the world. It has given us access to the doll world. People no longer find the elusive doll in the doll shop on the corner in Anywhere, World.
We can have anything, anywhere as long as we are willing to pay the money. And obviously we have money to spend. However, it's human nature to be fickle, and as fickle human beings, we will buy and we will sell. The doll manufacturers are turning out amazing products. They know we'll want them; they're NEW IMPROVED DIFFERENT...whatever. It's not wrong to sell a doll for less than you paid to buy a new doll! These are not human children.
Follow your heart, don't take the hobby or yourself too seriously, and above all, HAVE FUN!

 

3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards?
Well, using simple economic principles- the number of X limited heads is constant, the number of people who come into the hobby and want that head continually increase.

So since the supply is a constant value, and the demand increases, that will push the value of X head up.


4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?
You did actually ask something like this in the body of the post.

But, I know that for me personally, I will always buy my dolls from the company. I like getting shiney new things and with the company, there is less of a chance of problems occuring and a better chance of fixing the problem with the company versus a private seller.

 

I guess that's one of the things people are debating here, though. Will the number of people interested in that limited head increase? The number of interested people can decrease in two main ways- either people lose interest in BJDs (and I know everyone says "Oh no, I'll love mine forever" or "I'll never leave the hobby" or what have you... the fact of the matter is that people's interests change. A couple of years ago I thought my Pullips were awesome and I didn't like BJDs and I would be happy with Pullips... now my Pullips hardly get any attention paid to them and I've gotten into BJDs. A few years before that it was My Little Ponies and now I don't buy them or keep up with what's coming out anymore. Unlikely as it may seem now, a lot of people will lose interest- a lot of hobbies only last a couple of years before a person becomes interested in something else. The other way the number of interested people could descrease is, as others have mentioned, if the newest releases attract much more attention. For example, Yo-SDs, not to say they aren't in demand or popular because they are, but when they came out they were THE option in their size, they were unique. Now there are many other companies making doll in that size, and some even come with angel wings like the Yo-tenshis, some have double joints, some have magnetic ears, some have unusual skin colour options, etc etc. If people are lured by all of these other features then they may not be as interested in those Yo SD sculpts, or perhaps even someone who still likes the Yo SDs best may find themselves preferring a later sculpt over an older one. With the number of dolls coming out now, for some people a new doll will be more "perfect" than the one they'd liked before and their interest will shift.

I'm not saying that applies to everyone, but they are things to consider.

 

I love this discussion!!

I think there have been some great points made, especially about body and resin innovations meaning that people are less interested in the older 'outdated' models.

However, I've been collecting since '99 and although some previously extremely limited (like when I got my original Volks Lucas) dolls have become a LOT more common, there are quite a few who were released once and that's it. Sometimes there is a re-release of a particularly popular mold, but more often you're likely to find yourself prowling the second-hand market if you've discovered you're in love with a doll that's no longer available. How many of us are pining for Hypermaniac Sirang, for instance (original OR renewal)? So, for limited molds especially, I think there will be a market for a long time as people who yearn for them continue to seek them out.

Personally, I've learned my lesson of paying a huge amount for an extremely limited doll and then having it re-released not long after.

The market is bound to level out/shrink eventually (it's already started with the withering US economy) but we BJD collectors are still WAY ahead of most things I've collected in the past. To be able to get even CLOSE to the original price you paid is pretty amazing. And, if you get more, well, that's just cake!

H

 

One point I haven't seen made is that the BJDs are expanding into new markets. People who collect vinyl or porcelain dolls are now starting to hear about BJDs and buying them, because BJDs are a better quality doll: more durable and posable, more beautiful and varied sculpts, and with amazing customization possiblitites. So while the original market -- teens and young adults, or people who are interested in Asian culture -- may be saturated, new customers are coming in. Many of these collectors are older and have more money than your average 15-25 year old, which should help keep things going. However, I think newcomers will be less interested in older dolls, even if rare and desirable.

 

I think there are too many new dolls coming out, honestly. There can't be two dozen new dolls every month and everyone can still sell enough of every model they have. @.@

I think a lot of sculpts are going to start dropping off, old ones and less popular ones. I also predict a steady drop in price because of the progression or more less-expensive companies.

 

Personally, I don't think that Asian doll companies should allow independent US or other foreign distributors, it over saturates the market and makes them too easy to obtain. Part of the fun of collecting anything is the challenge of hunting and finding it and the work you have to do to get the doll.

 

Hm. For some, the hunt is part of the fun. For myself (and I'm sure others) things like English language websites that ship worldwide, US/International agents, etc. show a good level of customer service and show that the company cares about its customers, wherever they are. I'm into other hobbies that require buying services to get things from certain shops or from auction sites like Yahoo Japan, and I'll say with complete honesty that even if those brands that don't sell overseas have something I love and adore, I'm more willing to buy something I like pretty well from a shop that will ship directly to me. Paying an extra lot of shipping and a 10-20% fee on top of an expensive purchase are real turn-offs to me when I know there's something comparable at another shop I can buy directly from (nevermind that I prefer to buy directly from a shop or its official dealer in case there's a problem like a wrong item sent or breakage or what have you). In fact, even if the item from a shop that sells overseas is more expensive such that it ends up being a similar price to the other item plus fees... I'm STILL more likely to buy from the brand that will sell directly to me!

I know that's a personal thing but I think a lot of people agree. And there will always be hard to find dolls- even brands that sell overseas have limiteds that are still hard to find and desirable- challenges.

 

See, I don't feel that way at all. I'm sure for some, there is that thrill of the hunt. However, I don't have as much of a collectors mentality about my dolls. For me it's not finding the rare or unusual or having to jump through hoops to get a doll--it's about being able to bring my characters to life. It's not the work I do to get my doll, it's the work that I do when the doll gets to me that I love.

 

I have worked in the comic market for many years and I have seen how new things go as far as interest. There are many works in that industry that have fluctuated drastically in the time I worked there.
I have been going to SciFi and anime conventions for ten years watching the cosplay and have seen the patterns of the cosplay popular over the years and have seen the number of cosplayers move both up and down over the years

So based upon that, my 10 years going to conventions, and cosplay experience here are my opinions

1) When do you think the BJD market will level out?
I think the market will level out at some point, I do not know when, and it is likely to happen in the next few years, the cost of the dolls may start coming down. There will be however collectors who do not wish to ever sell their dolls, and are interested in having more and are willing to keep buying other's dolls as they pop up for sale.

2) Have we already seen some leveling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value?
I think that there are a few dolls that are not in as much of a demand at this time, some of the unlimited Delfs and DOC dolls are not as popular as others. I know a couple people locally are wanting one style body that is no longer being produced from certain companies.

3) Will the market leveling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards?
The scalping will continue, like everything of value there will be no change. There will be people who know that they can make money buying the limited editions and turn around and sell them a few months later for a higher amount.

4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?
The market level out will probably not affect the fandom all that much. There are alot of people who want their own dolls, first hand and not owned by others so the first hand market probably will not change too much. Many second hand dolls have yellowed to some degree and some slight damages, and due to this they do loose their resell value, I personally will probably not buy many second hand dolls. Both of my Recalls are second hand, one purchased unopened the other played with with care from a friend. So far the rest of my dolls are first hand dolls.

I feel the same as you, when I brought Kollin home I was happy that a character I created years ago. I wanted the mold, but when he told me that he was that doll I was ecstatic. Next year I plan on getting the Luwen and Luwen vampire the characters for those two dolls has been plaguing me for the last month

 

Ithink one question needs t be - How bothered by limiteds are the general ABJD buying public? I have bought a couple but have since realised how boring it gets to have them in the same outfit and wig, so eventually their limited outfit gets put away. I think I will only buy limited again if it is a limited doll NOT one just with a costume.

Also, i think a lot of people are more into creating a character than buying one.

Just my opinion! I look for the face first, the make after, if that makes sense! I have 'cheap' dolls that I fell in love with and more expensive dolls- equally I was smitten by.

I wonder if the want for limieeds will decrease? Especially among young and new collectors?

 

And:

My thoughts, exactly. It reminds me of something I noticed, having been in the tabletop RPG business since almost as long as it existed: at the same time as better products were being offered in greater numbers, the fanbase started shrinking, for totally non-market-related reasons (such as changes in lifestyles, etc); as a result, the once-florishing second-hand RPG market changed forever, a quite small number of popular products staying popular, the values of a vast majority of others, that had been for awhile highly in demand, dropping to nothing.

I hope nobody (neither BJD collectors nor gamers) will feel offended by the apparent impliation that BJD collecting and tabletop gaming are equally nerdy activities!