When the market levels out [Doll values in future years], BJD market saturation

I did not buy my to CP's as an investment. Trust me, as an investment, GOLD is better.
For a doll, for a resin companion, for the whatever reasons, they're worth only what we are willing to pay. Considering materials and labor costs, I doubt the market will "bottom out". In fact, you can actually see prices increasing across the board and, when purchasing with American currancy, which is quite devalued right now, the costs will only increase for buyers.

If I saw a doll I really wanted, me who thought you all were certified nut cases 2 years ago, and I could afford to buy it, then I would. It would have to be one fantasic doll however, and I'm talking custom Bermann's or something, before I'd consider shelling out $1000's of cash for one. But that's just me. Hasn't stopped me from looking each time one comes up for sale, nor from drooling and wishing for a Saint.

Where would I call the limit? Not sure. I own my own house and car. I don't have to worry about my grandkids. So I guess, whatever I am willing to pay.

 

...Those are completely different dolls made for a completely different market. They're not stooping to anything to make a quick buck, they're marketed toward the fashion doll and anime character doll crowd and are more or less entirely unrelated to BJDs. Volks, for example, sells "Dollfie" and "Super Dollfie" lines, Dollfie are the ones you're talking about which are plastic and Barbie-sized, and from what I know they actually came before the Super Dollfies. But they're basically fashion dolls which have the bonuses of better posing than most fashion dolls, andthe ability to customize. They're also off topic for this forum because they're not ball-jointed dolls and aren't marketed to the same people. Anyway, Volks also went on to create the first of the resin ABJDs, the Super Dollfies. Those dolls are of course the ones focused on here, and just because the company also produces another unrelated product doesn't mean they're "stoop[ing] to that level just to make a quick buck".

 

Well, I never really thought of it that way. I suppose that if they weren't meant to be made as BJDs and as simply fashion dolls, there really isnt much of a point to making them at the quality that resin BJDs are... And when its all put that way then I suppose I really am off topic...oops haha ^ ^;;

 

Taking into consideration what the doll & collectibles market in general does, I think it's inevitable that the market will eventually level out & even fall. Interests change, new items come on the market & people move on. If anyone is buying dolls for investment they'd be better off burying their money in an old coffee can in the backyard.

Really though, even now not all our resins are holding their value. Over the past year I've been able to pick up some great bargains both in the Marketplace & on Ebay. I never buy with an eye towards resale though, just what I love & can afford at the moment.

Two interesting things to watch will be as more companies switch to a double jointed body. The older bodies may decline in worth as long as the new ones are well done & aesthetically pleasing. The other one is the discontinuation of Luts' tan dolls. There are perhaps enough of them available on the secondary market to meet demand as Luts is one of the larger & more productive companies, yet it will be interesting to see how prices go on those. Will they become highly desired commodities? I don't know but it's something to follow.

Eventually even the prices of limiteds will be affected but not as heavily as more common molds. Some hard to get dolls may actually become affordable.

Some people will stick with the hobby irregardless of general market trends or price reductions, others will move on to the next big thing. Collectibles are fairly cyclical in interest & prices & there's no reason to believe that BJDs will be any different in the long run. As for the companies themselves, there'll eventually be a shake down with a number of them failing. There's almost a glut of product now in all price ranges & I expect the most popular & top of the line companies will continue to do ok as will some of the bargain Chinese companies. They definitely fill a niche as not everyone can spend hundreds on a doll. The small, artist run "companies" may be the hardest hit unless enough collectors really view these dolls as pieces of art & financially support that area of the market.

 

Sadly, all good things come to an end. I can't truley predict when the market will level out, I haven't been into bjds long enough. I don't really know if they have hit their prime, if you know what I mean. As for quality, I believe some dolls will keep their value, but some won't. They yellow or what not. I've always been curious about the dolls in different colors, (blue, pink, lilac, ect) I wonder if they turn colors very fast. I am NOT speaking badly of them!!! I'm just curious.

 

I don t really think it will level out. Sure you have alot more BJD companies that are in the mix now but you also still have alot of the orginal companies that have kept their 'orignal' prices or have upped them to change with inflation. I think there will be some dolls that you can only buy second hand but I dont think they will be come a BJD in everyhouse like mattels barbie...

 

Well, many of them just do it as a sideline anyway, so far as I can tell, so as long as it is financially worthwhile for them to do they'll probably continue. I think it probably just supplements their income as opposed to being their sole source. Personally, I find myself more and more drawn to the small companies like Hypermaniac and Dollstown and less and less to the Big Boys like Volks and Luts. (Renee being a recent very strong exception). To a certain degree I feel like most Volks dolls have a certain 'feel' to them, and most Luts dolls have a certain 'feel' to them, so even though they constantly come out with new molds, they don't continue to grab me with the same desire that they used to.

I think that's another aspect of the 'levelling' of the hobby... at a certain point, you may well reach the point (as I have) that you feel you already have too many dolls... and there's no longer quite the desire to rush out and buy the latest new thing. I've had a number of dolls come and go, and the ones I have now are (for the most part) ones that I really have no intention of parting with. But along with that comes the fact that I have no real desire to replace any and from sheer space restrictions there's just not much room left for new dolls. Sure, you may still get one or two, and let one or two go, but the heady "I MUST have this doll" followed by "Hm... it's not really working out" tends to cool down.

For years I had the feeling that if I wanted a Volks limited, I bloody well better go ahead and buy it right away from Volks if I could since otherwise I'd be paying a small fortune on the re-sale market. So, I ended up with a few dolls that I didn't really care for once I got them right in front of me. (Madoka was one... I just wasn't that drawn to her). I never scalped them myself, but I did have the feeling that if you *didn't* buy a limited you thought you might want, then later you would be at the mercy of the scalpers. So, I bought dolls that I wasn't 100% in love with, because I was afraid I *might* be once I saw user pics. I think I'm not the only one with this attitude, but I also suspect that, like me, eventually you just say to yourself "Look... if I end up wanting it that much, I'll just find a way to get it sooner or later". I don't feel so inclined to rush out and buy something I'm not totally in love with. That is a sign to me of my own cooling passion for the hobby (it's still warm, mind you, just not a raging inferno). I suspect that the hobby likewise will experience a dropoff in the 'people buy new limited dolls just because they are new and limited'. I believe that's already begun but the crazy dash for Renee recentlly shows that the right mold will still elicit extreme excitement.

I think the small art studios are actually in a good position because they only expect modest sales, they aren't banking on selling 1,000 dolls. They probably do runs of 50 or so at a time, or take orders and make them to order rather than ending up with a ton of excess stock. I certainly hope the small studios survive!

 

You know, I have wondered about this for some time. I do suspect there will be certain countries where BJDs will always be popular, and have a higher value. (Japan has been celebrating dolls for years, I imagine there soon to come dolls will be animated robots like we have already seen in many variations.)

As for the companies scalping and making their own cheap versions, well, they surely will fade away. I do not think that the dolls bought by owners will continue to lose value, I know I bought mine because I loved them from the moment I saw them-so the attachment will be their forever. (If we buy them at hundreds of dollars their sentimental value will likely always supersede the monetary value.)

 

1) When do you think the BJD market will level out?

Eventually MOST of the old dolls will loose value. As new and more detailed and stunning sculpts become available there will be less demand for the old, yellowing, and discontinued sculpts (most of them anyway).

2) Have we already seen some levelling out of the market, in regards to certain bodies and molds depreciating in value?

Yes of course. Even i can say i've noticed some dolls being worth less then when i started getting into BJD's, and i'm really not one of those people who knows a lot of dolls, so that should say something XD

3) Will the market levelling out affect the prices of limiteds or dolls commonly scalped? Will they go up or down? How will it affect the price of standards?

I'm not sure, If a doll is rare enough and pristine enough, and someone WANTS IT enough...then scalpers will always exist. Thats the thing with them, they know that. Plus there is always someone out there willing to pay a crapload for something thats really hard to get.

4) How will the market level out affect the fandom, or the companies themselves? Can the secondhand market for standards actually get large enough to overwhelm or undercut the firsthand market?

The fandom i imagine will improve some if it helps level prices a bit, it'd encourage more sticker shy people to try and purchase a doll :P.
I seriously doubt that the second hand market will overwhelm the first hand one. There is definitely enough stuff to buy, but not many people want to buy second hand.
Myself and others i know don't really want to buy 2nd hand, especially with resin dolls. I like to enjoy them and be the first one to customize them. I also have personal issues with buying a used doll because they don't really feel -mine-.
I know not everyone is that way, Though i do find it really sweet when people adopt dollies. ^_^

 

Oh man...I wish I had taken this advice, back in 2008:

"I did not buy my to CP's as an investment. Trust me, as an investment, GOLD is better"

Interesting to see this thread back....I'm curious to see what people who have posted in it would say today.

 

It will level out. I don't know when, but it will. Remember when it seemed like everybody was making a mint eBaying repainted Tonners and Genes? Those days are gone, gone, gone. As was said above, people move on to new things. Buy your bjds only if you truly love them, because I honestly believe that in ten years, you will be selling them for pennies on the dollar.

 

I don't think it will be pennies on the dollar, but eventually the market will level out. However, as many collectors know, the demand for something vs. the supply of something will always determine the value of a thing.
And, if you look at the nostalgia market these days, prices may not be crazy, but there is still demand for things we used to value as children. Though most of us aren't kids now, I think many of us collect because of that nostalgia - that happy feeling of receiving a new toy we all used to get from a visit to the toy store or the anxious anticipation of waiting for our birthday party so we could open presents. Or, wanting a particular toy so badly and never being able to have it when it was available. Many men and women will go out of their way to locate a toy they loved and never could have as kids - My Little Pony, Transformers, you name it - and I think that is why the market will never really "crash".
As long as there's a demand for something and the supply is low, the prices will remain fairly even. Plus, with the customization of these dolls and the limited availability of many of them, I think there will still be a market out there far into the future.
Also, remember that, despite how large this community and other BJD communities have gotten, we are still a very very very tiny percent of the population. People are still discovering this hobby on a daily basis, and since that will never stop, I think the desire for older sculpts or limiteds or even widely available dolls will remain. Granted, you may not be making a profit in the end, but you will at least be getting your resin investment back (though all the clothing and accessories are a massive risk).

Plus, if you're only in it to make a profit, I think you're missing the point of the hobby altogether. My dolls are MINE and unique unto me and I bought them because I fell in love with them. If that ever changes, I hope that whoever receives them next loves them the same way I do, and that's all that matters.

 

I posted twice, as it seems at least two threads of similar topic were merged. What I'd say now?

That I'm surprised they've held their value as well as they have, all things considered (namely the awful economy)!

It's harder now for me to believe that they'll always be desirable. Things have an unfashionable phase, and today's "WOW" is tomorrow's "Ugh, TACKY, what were we thinking?!". I spent the day wandering around an antique mall, and had ample time to consider this subject.

I don't worry about it too much, though. I try to be as sensible as I can (for a doll person) and enjoy myself.

Raven

 

See also: Beanie Babies, Longaberger Baskets.

 

You have to take into consideration the fact that American and Japanese cultures differ when it comes to limiteds - we're not really into them as much, while the Japanese have limited everything - snack and drink flavors, cheap toys, collectors items, everything. So unless that changes they will always be buying limited dolls regardless of the cheaper standard options. I don't know if any other cultures are the same way or if this would affect anyone besides Vilks since they seem to be the most popular over there, but there you go.

Also, since you were mentioning comics/roleplay/cosplay/that sort of thing: I'd like to see more BJDs being sold at cons. I know for a fact that people are a lot more willing to spend ridiculous amounts of money at cons than they are normally, and I've only seen like two places that were selling actual dolls and not just accessories - LadySaiyuki's booth and a place in Dragoncon that had some Resinsoul dolls (which is where I got my first doll actually). I'm not saying Volks and Luts and those guys should start setting up booths everywhere (although that would be awesome), but I think there is potential there that isn't being tapped yet. There are a lot of fans there that will stick around regardless of how mainstream popular their fandom is. Even cons that aren't just anime still have doll meetups, and if they added some sci-fi/fantasy/comic book outfits and accessories I could see them selling. (Wonder Woman and Supergirl Dolfie Dreams anyone?)

I guess this might be a different topic, but I think it's something to consider.

 

Almost 6 years on, I still haven't sold any of mine yet. You've got to wait a looong time for stuff to truly go Out and then truly back In again. Two years is nothin'! Think more in terms of decades. But if you have cold feet, and/or think of your dolls as investments, then yes, go sell 'em all for gold now before things can drop any lower. ^^ That doll-market is so saturated with random dolls now, and everybody's already got one; I'm always amazed when anybody manages to sell anything these days.

Still, one cannot ignore the fact that the current Volks Reisner is flying off the Y!J auctions to the tune of $2800.... His aftermarket prices are higher than when he originally came out ('07), because people have had a few years to see & know & fall in love with him and all the repaints of him.

The prices ARE crazy! Already! But I'm not dead yet! Oh wait, no, I'm just old. ;; Last Christmas season, when the economy was even worse, I saw a three-hundred-dollar original Transformers playset in a vintage-shop. It still had the $5.99 pricetag on it from a department store that's been out of business for the past 20 years, too. I could hear the liver-spots blooming on my hands as I looked at it....

 

2-3 years of rising, couple of years of stability and after that the BJD market will steadily level out